Replies to post #123571 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[researcher59]

Interesting call .... I agree with you that this market is getting ahead of itself. There's still so much uncertainty about the tariffs and economy. Lots to worry about, but the market has been "climbing the wall of worry".

[littlejohn]

Trump passed 30% Tariff/Tax increase on China

and Hong Kong imports under $800

on Friday, May, 2nd, 2025...

Wall Street is full of Bull with rally day

when small buyers get hit more with

higher prices ahead...

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-closes-de-minimis-exemptions-to-combat-chinas-role-in-americas-synthetic-opioid-crisis/

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/02/economy/de-minimis-packages-tariff

Strategic targeting of China and Hong Kong

isn't showing any signs that the U.S. will

negotiate a good faith trade agreement...

A new attack is the opposite...

Economy numbers are too hot and unlikely

to show lower numbers by June Fed meeting

schedule as big wheels are betting on...

Now the lower priced goods increase could

get into CPI faster than higher priced items

where companies may reduce margins...

Sudden change is most likely in current

outlook of tariff war and uncertainty...

And damage to the buying of U.S. Goods by

foreign Individuals appears way underestimated

right now for back lash and not buying...

Gap open after 04/22/2025 close for SPX, SQQQ,

and DJIA could easily fill fast in weaker market from

a technical view...SPX 5,309 for example...less than

about 7% downside risk to there for SPX...

Market may be priced right for flash numbers they

are getting for March and April, BUT...

peon thesis on this outlook...

So we watch...LJ

[researcher59]

S&P500 on longest win streak since 2004. Nine straight up days and definitely due for a pullback.

The S&P closed higher for the ninth day in a row, notching its longest streak of daily gains since 2004 and erasing the steep decline that followed President Trump’s sweeping trade restrictions early in April.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/hopes-on-trade-economy-drive-week-of-stock-gains-c36e902b?st=rvNV8n&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[littlejohn]

Bond yields surged Friday with market roaring up,

and within .04 on two year treasury on

Friday since time the market started

surging from 05/22...


Headline wasn't about hot economy but was

about Gov't prop story on China...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/02/us-treasury-yields-china-signals-possible-trade-talks-with-us.html

click on one month on chart...

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US2Y

Is there any indicator Anywhere that accurately

forecasts market moves either way?...

Very frustrating to watch gyrations with no

rhyme or reason to them...


so we watch...LJ

[SSKILLZ1]

COLB

I brought some COLB at $21.99 today. Here is what I like.

1) COLB pays a nice healthy dividend yield of 6.55% where I brought so you get paid while you wait.

2) The COLB Acquisition should be accretive to earnings in the future. I wouldn’t be surprised if earnings are around $3.25 in FY 26. A 12x Multiple could gets us to the upper 30’s hence I feel it is very undervalued here.

3) COLB Asset quality is solid and healthy. Which is a significant plus.

Conclusion: I Like COLB a lot here, as I think the risk/reward is very attractive, and I will buy more on weakness. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.