Replies to post #523588 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[louieforpar]

Mad?? I disagree. He is completely gone.All that defection in his rant over one simple question asked. This is what America calls a President?


Hopefully he will be dead in less than two years one way or another. 

[newmedman]

This just gets more depressing by the hour. It's like a 12 alarm fire when you only have three volunteer firefighters working from out of their cars with garden hoses. Tarrifs on, tariffs off, you're all fired , now you're all rehired, Your Visa is revoked, just kidding it's not, we deported you by mistake, well tough cookies. The thing that angers me the most are the institutions and organizations that capitulate to this moron.

Arresting those judges today was just the icing on the cake. Like what the hell is that going to solve? I'm at a loss for creative words to describe all this. Haberdashery? Buffoonery?

Now I've been reading that they can just conduct warrantless searches on private residences. It's just beyond the pale.

[fuagf]

1 month on from Trump's Liberation Day. What's the latest with Trump's tariffs?

The big bad wolf, he huffed and he puffed and he slunk back to his lair abysmally stuffed.

A lot has changed in one month.

Posted by Sebastian Bowen ? @SebastianTBowen
Published May 2, 1:27 pm AEST

Can you believe it has only been one month since US President Donald Trump stood in the Rose Garden of the White House and announced those sweeping and savage 'reciprocal tariffs' that upended global markets?

In many ways, it feels like an eternity ago. But 'Liberation Day' was exactly one month ago today.

As you may remember, Trump had embarked upon his tariff crusade before 2 April. There was the 25% tariff hike on Mexican and Canadian imports that was subsequently recast. The 25% tariffs on imported cars, aluminium, and steel into the United States. Not to mention the initial 10% hike on Chinese imports.

But it was the reciprocal tariffs from 2 April that really set the cat amongst the pigeons. In the Rose Garden, Trump announced that almost every country on earth was ripping off the United States. Using a rather arbitrary formula to come up with different tariff rates, Trump revealed a range of new taxes on imports. These ranged from a 10% baseline tariff applied to countries like Australia and the United Kingdom, to rates as high as 50% for Lesotho.

The Trump tariff rollercoaster

Well, those only lasted a week. On 9 April, Trump backed down in the face of a fierce backlash from both the stock market and the bond market. A 10% baseline tariff would remain in place on all imports entering the United States, as well as on aluminium, steel, and cars. But those higher reciprocal tariffs would be delayed by 90 days.

That was with the notable exception of China. Trump initially imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese imports. But when the country retaliated with its own tariffs, Trump responded in kind by increasing the American rate. In what became a somewhat farcical game of chicken, both countries continued to ramp up their tariff rates until the US hit 145% on Chinese imports and China 125% on American imports. That is where they remain today.

So, apart from what is effectively a mutual trade embargo between the USA and China right now, where do Trump's tariffs stand today?

What's next for tariffs?

Well, we're all waiting with bated breath to see what will come at the end of the current 90-day tariff pause. Considering the initial reaction from the American stock market and the subsequent rebound, it seems that investors are assuming that Trump's Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs might never be implemented.

However, no such indication is coming out of the White House. Trump and his administration have made remarks about countries calling up, willing to negotiate on apparent bended knees. They have also indicated that deals are coming, although we have yet to see any deals with any country. Perhaps they will be announced before the 90-day deadline expires in July.

Trump has made other policy changes, though. Subsequently, it was revealed that the steep 145% China tariff wouldn't apply to smartphones, computers, and other select electronics.

This week, Trump also announced that the initial 25% tariff on automotive vehicles would be softened. Automakers will now be eligible for tax credits up to 15% of domestically assembled vehicles, even if they use foreign-made parts. According to Reuters, though, this will only be in place for three years to allow car makers to 'onshore' their supply chains.

So that's the latest on the Trump tariff front. Given this administration's unpredictable nature, it's hard to anticipate what might happen next. Let's see if those reciprocal tariffs came back in July.

https://www.fool.com.au/2025/05/02/1-month-on-from-trumps-liberation-day-whats-the-latest-with-trumps-tariffs/

[fuagf]

Trump claims ‘total reset’ in US-China trade relations after tariff talks in Geneva

"He is barking mad. This is from the full transcript of Time Magazine's interview with him three days ago:
You have to understand, I'm dealing with all the companies, very friendly countries. We're meeting with China. We're doing fine with everybody. But ultimately, I've made all the deals."

Lying, cheating dunce. Pound chest. Hey Me!!

US president praises ‘very good’ discussions as top US and Chinese officials meet over trade war triggered by Trump’s tariff blitz

Agencies
Sun 11 May 2025 13.04 AEST

Donald Trump has hailed a “total reset” in US-China trade relations after the first day of talks between top American and Chinese officials in Geneva aimed at defusing a trade war sparked by his tariff rollout.

The US president praised the “very good” discussions and deemed them “a total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner”.

“We want to see, for the good of both China and the U.S., an opening up of China to American business,” he posted on his Truth Social platform early on Sunday, adding: “GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!” He did not elaborate on the progress.

More - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/11/trump-claims-total-reset-in-us-china-trade-relations-after-tariff-talks-in-geneva

--

Weeks ago

China warns countries against striking trade deals with US at its expense

By Libby Hogan with wires Mon 21 Apr

[...]

China has warned countries not to strike economic deals with the United States that could come at Beijing's expense, ratcheting up its rhetoric in the ongoing trade war between the world's two largest economies.

China's Commerce Ministry said it would firmly oppose any such moves and "will take countermeasures in a resolute and reciprocal manner."

The warning follows a report by Bloomberg that the Trump administration is preparing to pressure nations to reduce trade ties with China in exchange for tariff exemptions or reductions.

"The United States has abused tariffs on all trading partners under the banner of so-called 'equivalence,' while also forcing all parties to start so-called 'reciprocal tariffs' negotiations with them," the ministry spokesperson said.

In recent weeks, Washington raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 per cent, triggering retaliatory Chinese duties of 125 per cent on US goods.

Beijing has since indicated it will not further raise its across-the-board rates, but tensions remain high.

Supply chains rerouting draws scrutiny

A major focus of the US strategy appears to be targeting what analysts call "connected trade" — exports to the US that originate from China but are routed through third countries to avoid direct tariffs.

"The Chinese statement seems to be directed at countries commencing negotiations with the Trump administration over the concessions those countries will offer to the US, designed to reduce their bilateral trade surpluses," Professor Peter Draper, executive director of the Institute for International Trade at The University of Adelaide, explained.

He pointed to Chinese companies setting up manufacturing operations in countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and Ireland to avoid direct US tariffs on Chinese goods.

"This was a key result of Trump's first China tariffs and led to what the IMF [International Monetary Fund] came to call the rise of the 'connector countries," Professor Draper said.

Vietnam, in particular, has emerged as a key export hub to the US, benefiting from the rerouting of global supply chains. But its position is precarious.

“Connector countries like Vietnam are caught in the crossfire of US –
China strategic competition,” said Associate Professor Marina Zhang,
an expert on East Asian trade dynamics at the University of Technology Sydney.

“In 2022, nearly 40 per cent of the value of Vietnam’s exports to the US relied on Chinese inputs, and over 60 per cent of its imported machinery and equipment came from China. Vietnam also increasingly depends on Chinese electricity to power its industrial growth,” she told the ABC.

This deep economic entanglement creates two-sided vulnerability.

"On the Chinese side, there's always the potential for informal economic pressure — customs delays, supply slowdowns, or tightened export procedures — if Hanoi is seen to be enabling US strategic aims at China's expense," she added.

Australia remains cautious

Despite the intensifying trade war, Australia appears to be relatively insulated from the fallout, according to Professor Draper.

"There aren't likely to be major implications for Australia given how
the government has responded to Trump's reciprocal tariffs so far,"
Mr Draper said.

He said the Australian government has no plans to make significant concessions to the US and doesn't fit the profile of countries being targeted by Washington.

"We have a trade deficit with the US and we are clearly not an exported manufacturing 'connector country' leveraging Chinese investments for the purpose of exporting to the US."

Moreover, he noted that the current government has been cautious in managing its relationship with China and is unlikely to engage in moves that might provoke Beijing.

However, Australia's growing importance as a supplier of critical minerals — including lithium and rare earths —adds further complexity.

“If China restricts its own exports of such inputs, Australia may be asked to ‘fill the gap’ by strategic partners like the US and Japan,” Ms Zhang said.

“While this presents opportunities, it also heightens geopolitical exposure, especially if Canberra is seen as enabling broader US-led containment efforts.”

Global fallout and strategic responses

As US President Donald Trump continues to selectively apply tariffs — pausing levies on dozens of countries while singling out China — the broader global trade architecture faces stress.

China is calling out what it sees as unilateral bullying and is preparing to raise the issue at the United Nations Security Council in a meeting this week.

"There are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars," President Xi Jinping wrote in Vietnamese media last week, as he toured South-East Asia in a bid to shore up regional alliances.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has also targeted China's advancements in critical technologies, including semiconductors and AI chips.

AI chip giant Nvidia said last week it would take $US5.5 billion in charges due to the administration's curbs on AI chip exports.

Last week it imposed port fees on China-built vessels to limit China's dominance in shipbuilding.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said nearly 50 countries have approached Washington to discuss exemptions.

Japan, Indonesia, and others are exploring increased US imports in exchange for tariff relief
— increasing food and commodities imports and reducing orders from other nations.

Several bilateral talks on tariffs have taken place since then.

"If countries have high reliance on China in terms of investment, industrial infrastructure, technology know-how and consumption, I don't think they'll be buying into US demands," said Bo Zhengyuan, partner at China-based policy consultancy Plenum.

"Many South-East Asian countries belong to this category, the fact is, nobody wants to pick a side," he added.

ABC/wires

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-21/china-warns-countries-striking-deals-with-us-at-its-expense/105197636

[fuagf]

Reality Vs Rhetoric — Let’s take Vietnam’s Trade Surplus with the US as an Example

"He is barking mad. This is from the full transcript of Time Magazine's interview with him three days ago:
You have to understand, I'm dealing with all the companies, very friendly countries. We're meeting
with China. We're doing fine with everybody. But ultimately, I've made all the deals.

Walter Schubert
Apr 8, 2025



The Trump Administration has fundamentally misunderstood Trading relationships and a perfect example of this is the country Vietnam. I’m going to use Vietnam as a perfect example of why Balanced Trade Between Vietnam and the U.S. isn’t happening anytime soon.

When people hear about trade imbalances — like how Vietnam sells way more stuff to the U.S. than it buys — they might think, “Why can’t we just fix that?” It sounds simple: Vietnam should buy more from the U.S., or the U.S. should stop buying so much from Vietnam. But in reality, it’s not that easy. In fact, the idea of quickly balancing trade between two countries — like what the Trump administration pushed for — is pretty unrealistic. Let’s break it down in plain terms.

What’s Going On With Vietnam and the U.S.?

Right now, Vietnam sells a ton of goods to the U.S. — things like clothing, electronics, and furniture. In 2024, Vietnam sold $123 billion worth of stuff to America but only bought about $30 billion in return. That’s a big gap! This is called a trade surplus for Vietnam (and a trade deficit for the U.S.), and it’s been growing for years.

Why does this happen? Well, Vietnam is really good at making affordable products that Americans want to buy. They’ve got low labor costs, lots of factories, and they’re part of global supply chains where big companies like Apple and Samsung make their products. On the other hand, Vietnam doesn’t buy as much from the U.S. because:

1. Most American goods are expensive.

2. Vietnam’s economy is smaller, and its people don’t have as much money to spend on imports.

3. A lot of what the U.S. makes (like software or financial services) isn’t something Vietnam needs or can afford.

Why Can’t We Just Balance Trade?

The Trump administration thought balanced trade was a straightforward goal: just make countries like Vietnam buy more American goods or stop selling so much to us. Sounds logical, right? But here’s why that idea doesn’t work in real life:

1. Vietnam Needs Exports to Survive

Vietnam’s economy depends on selling stuff to other countries — exports make up almost all of its GDP (93% in 2024). If they suddenly stopped exporting to the U.S., their economy would take a huge hit. Factories would shut down, people would lose jobs, and foreign companies might pull out of Vietnam altogether.

2. Vietnam Can’t Afford to Buy That Much From Us

Sure, Vietnam is buying some big-ticket items from America — like airplanes and natural gas — but it just doesn’t have enough money or demand to buy enough to balance things out. Most Vietnamese people aren’t going to start buying American-made cars or high-tech gadgets anytime soon because those products are too expensive.

3. The U.S. Doesn’t Make What Vietnam Needs

The U.S. economy is focused on services (like banking or tech) and high-end products (like airplanes or pharmaceuticals). But Vietnam mostly needs affordable goods that help its factories run — things like machinery or raw materials — which it can get cheaper from other countries like China or South Korea.

4. Global Supply Chains Are Complicated

A lot of what Vietnam sells to the U.S. isn’t even fully “Vietnamese.” For example, parts might come from China or Japan, get assembled in Vietnam, and then shipped to America. Stopping this flow would mess up global businesses that rely on these supply chains — not just in Vietnam but everywhere.

What About Tariffs?

The Trump administration thought tariffs (basically taxes on imports) could fix the problem by making Vietnamese goods more expensive for Americans to buy. In theory, this would reduce how much we import from them and encourage Americans to buy more stuff made at home.

But here’s the catch: tariffs don’t magically make people stop buying things they need or want. Instead, they just make those things more expensive for consumers and businesses in the U.S.! Even with a 46% tariff slapped on Vietnamese goods in 2025, Americans are still going to buy plenty of cheap clothes and electronics from somewhere — if not from Vietnam, then maybe from another country like Bangladesh or Mexico.

And here’s the kicker: tariffs don’t do much to increase how much a country like Vietnam buys from us because tariffs don’t change their ability to afford our products.

How Long Would It Take to Balance Trade?

If you’re wondering how long it would take for Vietnam and the U.S. to have balanced trade — where they sell as much as they buy — it’s probably decades away, if it ever happens at all. Why? Because fixing this imbalance isn’t just about tweaking some numbers and bashing them over the head with 46% tariffs; it would require massive changes:

- Vietnam would need to completely reshape its economy so it doesn’t rely so heavily on exports.

- The U.S. would need to start making more affordable products that countries like Vietnam actually want.

- Both countries would need new trade agreements and policies — and even then, global supply chains wouldn’t change overnight.

In short: balancing trade isn’t something you can just flip a switch on.

The Myth of Tariffs to Force Countries into perfect trade balance with the US.

The Trump administration’s push for balanced trade with countries like Vietnam was based on an irrational and total misunderstanding of how global trade works. It treated trade deficits as if they were inherently bad (they’re not) and assumed that strong-arm tactics like tariffs could force other countries into balance (they can’t). Trade imbalances aren’t just about one country “winning” and another “losing.” They’re a natural result of how different economies specialize in what they’re good at.

For example:

- The U.S. is great at making high-tech stuff and providing services.

- Vietnam is great at manufacturing affordable goods.

These differences are why trade exists in the first place! Trying to force perfect balance ignores these realities — and risks damaging both economies in the process.

So, What Should Happen Instead?

Rather than chasing an unrealistic goal like balanced trade, both countries should focus on making their relationship work better:

1. Vietnam Can Buy More American Goods:

This is already happening with deals for airplanes, natural gas, and agricultural products.

2. The U.S. Can Help Vietnam Grow:

Encouraging investment in higher-value industries (like semiconductors) could help reduce their reliance on low-cost exports over time.

3. Work Together on Trade Agreements:

Instead of fighting over numbers, both sides can negotiate deals that help both economies without demanding perfect balance.

Bottom Line

The notion of achieving balanced trade between Vietnam and the U.S. within the next 5 years is a total myth. It’s just not going to happen anytime soon. In fact, it will probably take decades, if ever — and guess what, in the real world that’s okay! Trade imbalances aren’t inherently bad; they reflect how different economies work together in a globalized world. The real goal should be building a strong partnership where both sides benefit — not chasing an impossible dream based on oversimplified ideas about how trade works.

https://medium.com/@walterschubert1956/reality-vs-rhetoric-lets-take-vietnam-s-trade-surplus-with-the-us-as-an-example-0cbdfdc1aade