My recap of the morning/afternoon so. (CNC, GPN, KEY, SNV, STT, TFC, plus an update on C)
CNC- Is currently getting hit thanks to UNH (much worse earlier in the morning). I personally think the market is hurting the sector, but I think UNH has a lot of it's own problems. So right now I'm under the opinion CNC like the other is being somewhat unfairly hits thanks to the UNH earnings, and quite frankly UNH is the most expensive in the space even now by a country mile I just don't get it, and I think there business has the most problems to go along with it. Positive opinion unchanged on CNC.
GPN- Yikes with all the earnings I have this I didn't see coming. I actually thought the deal was decent, the market disagrees as my 4th largest position coming in probably not my 4th after this disaster. I still see about $13.50-$14 for FY 26 (would of been higher, but SBC is now not being added back which is why it is lower than the last time I mentioned it) probably about $12.25 this year with not adding back SBC, would of probably been around upper 12's before the decision on SBC not to add it back. And they said from there they are gonna grow at the high end of medium term expectations hence we have a low teens at worst eps grower after 26. the $2.69 comp still beat $2.59 even with the fact that $2.83 versus $2.59 is apples on apples y/y comp.) In my opinion the stock is getting unfairly hit, the CC was a ton of congrats by the analyst. Yet the stock is falling off a cliff this one is leaving a mark. still love GPN, than again I have been beat up badly by this one.
KEY- Had a very solid quarter, they earned .33 in seasonally weak q1. guidance continues to be unchanged and very strong. I expect earnings to be in the $1.50-1.60 range this year, with nice comps going forward. Asset health was very strong, pays a very nice dividend. TBV was up nicely this quarter. I still strongly believe this stock has significant upside from current levels. My positive opinion remains unchanged.
SNV-SNV had a fantastic quarter of $1.30 easily beating analyst estimates, I actually think there is a decent chance based on guidance my $5.00 eps estimates this year might actually be low maybe closer to $5.25 is likely now. The stock is significantly undervalued here in my opinion. They continue to buyback shares, pay a decent recently raised dividend. Asset health already solid actually improved this quarter which is a plus. My opinion if anything is more positive than we started, they surpassed my positive expectations.
STT- Brilliant 21% adjusted eps earnings growth, Share buyback in the CC should pickup in future quarter, helping reducing the share count further. Pay a decent divy, out look untouched. I fully expect somewhere between $9.50-9.75 this year and close to $11.00 next, given a 12x multiple I expect to see about $130-135 over the next 12 months here. time will tell, but nothing STT has said has made me changed my opinion.
TFC- Sold in the low 36's today. They reduced sales expectation for the year by a couple of hundred million by my calculation and q2 guidance was actually disappointing to me. After this quarter I was disappointed with the earnings report. I decided to take my tax loss on this one. The one positive is they are being very aggressive buying shares back 500 million this quarter and heard 750 million in q2, so I was on the fence whether to sell with that kind of capital return which I acknowledge was a positive. But still q1 was down y/y and q2 should be about flat basically .90-.92 based on my guess of what the numbers look like. Non performing assets actually increased in q1 over q4 which wasn't a plus either, although not terrible, but a slight negative. hence why I sold.
C- didn't have earnings today but $1.96 this week was very solid. I continue believe in the C multi year expansion of ROTCE which will increase and be very accretive to earnings. Hence my positive opinion remains unchanged on C.
just though I would update everyone admittingly had 0 time to put any buy orders (And to be honest don't really like buying in up days at this point) in this morning as I was too busy with the countless cc i listened too this morning. But just thought I would update my opinion on numerous holding of mine with the new info out on these securities. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
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