SSK - the most interesting stat of all is that you have under 1% cash despite all the uncertainty regarding the tariffs and their impact on the economy ! It's like a big economic experiment which nobody knows for sure how it will turn out. Typically you're very conservative with a high cash position even during a bull market. But it now looks like we're entering a potentially prolonged bear market, yet you're over 99% invested. I guess you're taking a long term view.
I'm not a market timer so I'll be riding out this market downturn, however long it takes .... currently around 15% in cash.
Over the last two days I added too my favorites. Granted my purchase prices especially on Thursday left a lot to be desired in some cases as the markets were falling apart as I was buying in. So here goes.
C-I brought more C at $58.89 on Friday. The stock is trading over a $30 discount to Tangible book. I believe this is an increasing ROTCE story which is and will continue to happen over the coming years, which should unlock significant EPS growth in the next several years. Which is exciting. I also expect the share buyback to pick up in FY 25, and there dividend will continue to increase over time. Right now yielding about 3.85% of Friday's closing levels.
COLB- I brought more COLB at $22.15 on Thursday and more at $20.57 on Friday, thankfully I brought 3 times more at $20.57, I guess that is a positive. At $20.57 is was yielding a safe and whopping 7%. Hence you are getting paid while you wait. I think they will earn about $2.75 this year, hence trading at 7.5X this years estimates. Hence I think it is simply too cheap here.
GEN- Was yet another example of me catching a falling knife. Brought some on Thursday at $25.89, and than added twice of Friday as GEN one of my favorites fell off a cliff on Friday at $24.94 and $23.99. I continue to believe this is a consistent 12-15% earnings grower I expect they will earn about $2.50 in the next FY, which technically we are already in, because they are a March Year Ender. I continue to believe GEN should get a 15x multiple which puts fair value at least in the upper 30's. And believe this is great way to play the constant need for cyber security.
GPN- Another one of my favorites was sent too new 52 week lows This consistent growth story continues to grow earnings and I expect them to possibly hit the goal of $14.50 in the next FY. there consistent double digit eps growth is something to love. they also have an active buyback hence I expect them to reduce the share count this year as well. The stock should trade in my opinion at a 12x multiple at least. Hence I could make a case this stock could be worth double current prices a year from now.
IART-I added more to IART on Thursday at $20.79 than added more on Friday at $19.19. i continue to believe this medical device maker has started to turn the corner. finally. I also believe it will get a 15x multiple if they grow in FY 26 like I think they can. This stock could definitely be more than double current price a year from now in my opinion.
INBK- Brought more of this small bank on Thursday at $24.99 than more on Friday at $22.84, this stock trades at huge discount too book, and I believe they can earn $4 in FY 25. Hence the stock is just waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too cheap in my opinion.
JACK-Brought more at $24.23 on Friday, Yielding over 7.25% where my latest buy is so you get paid while you wait. and trading about a little over 4x this years estimates. that seem a little too cheap for me. so i brought more of this restaurant play.
JAZZ- Talk about catching a falling knife. Brought more at $119.99 on Thursday and added More at $112.82. This is one of my favorite stocks. They are a consistent grower I think we should see about $24-25 this year hence we are trading at about 4x earning, for a consistent growth story. There drugs are for the most part all have patents that expire well into the 2030's and the potential for the continued expansion of zantidamab who just recently got approved albeit it on a very small patient group of one type of cancer, this drug according to the company has 2 Billion+ peak potential. This is one of my rapidly increasing positions. Although I acknowledge it would of been much better if I started buying on Friday.
MCB- brought more of this bank first on Thursday at $52.97 and than added more at $47.94 ON Friday. One of my many favorite stocks. Trades at a significant discount too book. I think they should earn $7+ this year and over $8 easily the next. I think the stock could trade double current prices in a year from now.
OGN- added more at $13.49, at some point I think the valuation is just too cheap this stock is trading a little north of 3 times earnings. at Friday's closing prices we are looking at almost a 8.6% yielder. This is a great paying dividend. I don't believe this stock will get a high PE, but shouldn't it at least geta 5-6 PE that puts fair value in the low 20's.
PAHC-I brought more at $19.16 on Friday. This animal health play is growing there earnings real fast and is now trading at probably less than 10 forecasted earnings. I think the stock is simply too cheap.
PLAY- Brought more at $15.74 on Friday. They report on Monday after bell. I think this turnaround has potential to earn about $3.50+ in the next FY which we are already in. This could have some swing and miss in it, but I think the stock is an interesting turnaround play. Than again we never know with earnings.
STT- added more on Friday at $77.83, I think this stock is very attractive. offering a decent growing yield at almost 4% at current prices. a signifcant stock buyback which the company continue to reduce the shares count and a consistent earnings growth story where I think they could do $11 next FY. a 12x multiple on that doesn't seem unreasonable hence I feel FV is about $130 over the next year.
TFC- Added more on Thursday at $37.81 than added heavier on Friday at $34.64. It is currently a 6% yielder or just about at current prices. I expect this company too be more aggressive in buying back there shares in 2025. I expect them normally to get a 13-15 multiple on this type of bank, hence I feel FV is around $55.
Well that was the adding on Thursday and Friday to existing positions. I did add 13 new positions on Thursday and Friday and will discuss those in future posts. Anyways time will tell if this works. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
Commentary: This chart shows how each stock in the imaginary portfolio is weighted in terms of %. I think this is rather interesting stat, to see how the imaginary portfolio is currently made up. Hope everyone like the stats
Symbol % Of Portfolio $CASH$ 20.50% PRGO 5.02% CNC 4.33% AES 3.96% RITM-PD 3.14% FSLR 2.85% GEN 2.76% INBKZ 2.74% WU 2.64% PRGS 2.61% GPN 2.40% ARDT 2.40% SBH 2.30% KOP 2.25% MCB 2.24% EMBC 2.23% OI 2.17% KELYA 2.08% INBK 2.08% OGN 2.02% STT 1.80% GSK 1.76% C 1.74% JACK 1.68% COLB 1.65% TFC 1.60% IMXI 1.60% UHS 1.59% KEY 1.55% IART 1.54% JAZZ 1.48% GAP 1.47% PYPL 1.42% PAHC 1.39% SNV 1.34% BIIB 1.30% BAX 1.26% RITM 1.10% Totals 100.00%