Here’s what’s in Trump’s Ukraine minerals deal and how it affects the war
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By Ivana Kottasová and Victoria Butenko, CNN Updated 1:01 PM EDT, Thu May 1, 2025
Ukraine managed to wrangle some more favorable terms out of the United States before signing the long-awaited minerals deal on Wednesday.
The agreement on natural resources was finally struck late on Wednesday, after weeks of tense bargaining that at times turned sour and temporarily halted Washington’s aid to Ukraine.
Kyiv eventually convinced US President Donald Trump to drop some of his key demands but failed to make American security guarantees part of the agreement.
Ukrainian officials touted the final accord as an equal partnership between Kyiv and Washington – a notable shift from some of the earlier drafts which were described by Ukraine’s leader President Volodymyr Zelensky as the US asking him to “sell my country.”
The signed deal, seen by CNN, does indeed appear to be more favorable to Ukraine than some of the previous versions. Here’s what we know.
What’s in the deal?
Aid: Crucially, the deal does not call for Kyiv to reimburse the US for the aid it has already received – a key concession from Trump who has long framed the agreement as Ukraine “paying back” the US.
Washington initially demanded a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s rare earths and other minerals in exchange for the aid it has already provided to Kyiv. When Zelensky rejected that idea, Trump called him “a dictator.”
Instead, the agreement that was inked on Wednesday says that future American military assistance to Ukraine will count as part of the US investment into a joint reconstruction investment fund that will be used to pour money into Ukraine’s natural resources.
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It also says that if a conflict arises between the wording of the agreement and Ukraine’s law, the deal will have a legal precedent. What is missing from the deal?
Security questions: Ukraine has dropped its key demand that the US provides security guarantees as part of this agreement. It was this demand that ultimately led to the shouty meeting between Zelensky and Trump in the Oval Office in February.
Trump then refused to provide security guarantees, saying he wanted Ukraine to sign the agreement first and talk about guarantees later.
At the time, Zelensky refused, but Ukrainian officials have since indicated that they believe that US investment and the presence of American companies in Ukraine will make Washington more interested in Ukraine’s security.
Exclusive access for the US: While it ensures the US receives preferential access to Ukraine’s mineral riches, the deal doesn’t guarantee any exclusive rights.
Existing resources: The deal is limited to new projects, which means the US and Ukraine will have to invest in order to see profits. Existing mining operations that are already generating revenue for the Ukrainian government are excluded.
This clause puts a question mark over the benefits of the deal for the US. While Ukraine has large reserves of several valuable materials, the process to extract some of them is expensive and technically difficult.
Gavin Mudd, the director of the Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre at the British Geological Survey, told the non-profit Science Media Center that the production of some minerals – such as titanium, lithium or graphite – could be achieved quickly, if the regions where the deposits are are secure.
“However, in the case of rare earths, it will take years to ramp up capacity – studies will need to be completed to assess and determine how best to mine the deposits and process the ores and produce rich concentrate, and a new refinery will be needed to produce high purity metals and oxides for use in numerous technologies. All of this sits alongside the need to actually mine the minerals” he said.
How does it play into the peace process?
The Ukrainian government has in the past made the argument that its mineral deposits are one of the reasons the West should support Ukraine – to prevent these strategically important resources from falling into Russian hands.
Experts agree with that idea. Liam Peach and Hamad Hussain, economists at Capital Economics, wrote in an analyst note on Thursday that the agreement “provides some reassurance that the Trump administration is not planning on abandoning Ukraine altogether” because it establishes US economic interests in Ukraine.
The deal strengthens Ukraine’s position, but doesn’t necessarily bring the war closer to the end as it is separate from any negotiations with Russia. Those talks appear to be stalling, as Moscow continues to refuse a 30-day ceasefire agreement proposed by the US and agreed by Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the devastating war keeps raging. Seven people died in occupied Ukraine Thursday, with Russian and Ukrainian officials trading claims over the attack
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