AMPH
Sold in the mid $30 range this morning.
Maybe this is one of those being disappointed sells, and will look at later in the year but here is why I sold around the mid $30 range.
1) GM will be down going forward, my guess is more like q4 levels or maybe even lower. They said due to competitive pressure in higher margin products, combined with taking the Baqsimi in house production, will result in lower gross profit %, I thought it would be lower, but not that much lower.
2) Sales should be about flat y/y, I expect about 5-10% growth so I was very disappointed with that. Now the good news is they have 4 drugs that may be approved this year or by early next year, which they say will provide top line growth of over double digit % in FY 26 and beyond but it doesn't help us now. Furthermore we will have increased spend to get those drugs ready, plus investing in sales of there two primary products.
3) They should have very tough comps originally I expected $4.25 when I brought for FY 25, now I'm expect $3.25-3.50 Hence I don't see it getting a 12-15 pe until the comps improve which won't happen in the 1rst half, hence I think we will be able to get better prices later on the year and reenter at lower prices after these drug come into play I do expect earnings to climb back significantly in FY 26 say $4.25 so I don't think the long run thesis is in trouble but the short-run certainly is. Hence take the tax loss and get more interested later in the year when the stock will probably be lower with bad comps, and closer to where the comps will turn positive again. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
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