Replies to post #254108 on Biotech Values

[willyw]

No one should follow my lead.
I'm a bag holder, nearly trapped in a position with a high average cost per share. I've managed to get my average share price down thru buying at these recent LOW share prices.
And that's what I thought a year ago- and the year before that. Hope Springs Eternal. : )

but what is your thesis on why one should buy here?

I don't have a thesis on why someone else should buy- that's on their take on risk, reward, and on their analysis. If there is anybody that members shouldn't listen to it's me.
My main purpose in posting wasn't to get more people to invest, but rather to suggest- if you've bought stock you must have some sense of a time line for it to rebound. The fact it doesn't reverse on the timeline- let's call it my timeline- doesn't suggest it's due to management failure.

Money rotates in and out of stocks and sectors. If in ENTA's case, it could be until the next RSV trial finishes -let's call it in 6 months that's the timeline and catalyst I'm looking at. There may be other news, settlements with Pfizer, there could be new discoveries but my recent purchases are based on a hope and perception that;
1) the current price could be artificially low due to short selling or rotating out
2) There *could* be some shorting in trying to leverage CEO Luly/Enta BOD to cave on a lawsuit, partnership deal or buyout deal.
3) ENTA may be considered "dead money" for now. Why not take a tax loss and rotate back in later?
4) The bottom line is what is the right price for a company which could have the best drug(s) for RSV?
---All this is an explanation as to how I got to where I am.

My other prime motivation has nothing to do with Enanta,- rather my very first experience in buying a stock.
Somewhere in the 2007 time frame I bought Vertex. I had no money; I borrowed money and bought stock.😃
I bought with the hopes in their new drug VX-750, later to be called Telaprevir. It was in phase 2 trials or perhaps phase 1 completed. (I was later in the phase 3 antiviral HCV registration trial)
Bottom line is I couldn't hold the stock and I sold during a protracted dip. What I bought in the low $20s I sold in the middle teens.
I was on borrowed money and just couldn't hold and so I sold at a loss. Ha! I *needed* it to just go up lineally- but it let me down. : )
I locked in my losses and sold at the worst time as one commonly does when one is panicked.
Hahahaha. Well, we've all made mistakes. : ) (VRTX is trading above $400- down from over $500 this year) 😀

What are the next visible catalysts in the pipeline which would reverse the downtrend?

The real question is Enanta fairly priced (or underpriced) for it's potential catalysts and it's pipeline and do I think there's a good chance of success? I do- especially at this price.
BUT I don't expect success/ huge reversal in the next week or month. "Rocky" laid out a well reasoned post as to his cynicism.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175605338
The bear case is Enanta has not had a financial success in some time. Will it reverse or continue?

Time will tell- more likely months, not weeks. We will see.

[MadCityCyclone]

The share price is at an all time low, who else other than management is responsible?