Correct me if I'm wrong, but Enanta has relatively few shares compared to large companies, it's share price has never been lower. It's pretty easy to short the stock, drive it lower and upset shareholders who demand the company 1) remove the CEO, 2) claim the company has made (is making) poor decisions, that they have no worthwhile assets or chances of success.
(Balderdash?)
I have no more (and perhaps less insight) than some here, but I bought because I *felt* they had a strong background in virology, have not over promised, had solid compounds (discussion below) and have several possible opportunities which will drive the share price higher (if successful).
And at $5.58/ per share Jan 3, 2025, yeah....... I could see the share price possibly increase.🙂
In the rear view mirror I feel that the NASH program was the worst failure, AND in doubling down. But, many great companies failed, right?
The HCV program was two home runs.
The HBV program ? Well, a hit and a miss. The miss never made it out of phase 1- discontinued quickly and cheaply. Their antiviral got a 4 log drop but is still lacking (in theory) one more antiviral to combine. I've almost stopped following HBV, but it seems to be a tough nut to crack- not an error or failure per se that other companies also didn't make. The fact that Enanta stopped developing seems a conscious risk/reward decision. I have no issue with that.
Perhaps I'm in error about RSV but some members here that I respect seem to feel there is the potential for success. What would success or a partnership mean to share price?
BOTH RSV and the Covid program had troubles with enrolling people for trials due to covid itself. The sheltering and isolation stopped flu and RSV transmission. I don't see that as a failing by Luly. So far as Covid? Pfizer was a success because the bar was incredibly low. They were first and those who followed had a much higher bar to approval. Is this a failing by a CEO? I don't think so. I believe that the Enanta covid drug is far superior to Pfizers. It could be better than Shionogi's but that's pure speculation unless/until a phase 3 trial is run. Which today seems unlikely. As an investor that got in deeper due to covid, even I, a knucklehead of the first order knew it was going to be highly time sensitive and the clock might run out. IF it were so that Enanta created the best or second best Covid drug do I think they made a poor decision? No. It was, and could still be an opportunity even though today it looks like a bust.
There are still other assets, other chances of success, the IP catalogue and IMHO they still have potential in new discoveries.
Bottom line, sometimes investors have to purchase "when there's blood in the streets". IF we buy then we have to have the expectation that it may be a while before things improve. We can't expect that firing a CEO is going to fix problems which may not exist.
My 2 cents.
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