Replies to post #253821 on Biotech Values

[IanFromSI]

If you look at my posts on the RVNC thread during the past two or three years, I’m sure you’ll come to the conclusion that many investors at IHub just don’t know what they don’t know.

The same could be said of several investors that I thought were quite experienced and just misinformed. It made no difference

They didn’t give the AbbVie( former Allergan) marketing and sales team any credit whatsoever for their ability to protect their market even though they had successfully defended it against other competitors.

Some of the more fervent perma-bullls stubbornly held onto the belief that the product was so good that they could capture a massive majority market chair, even if they charged premium prices and didn’t properly train the injectors prior to trying to roll out the product

They ignored the company, repeatedly, warning that they doubted their ability to continue as a going concern and continued to have incredible expectations.

Even a couple, highly respected, very competent and experienced investors held onto the belief that this company would make everybody extraordinarily wealthy. … Right up to the very end.

The Case Study you’re looking for already exists and can be looked at in the Revance thread.

However, I’m now convinced that any effort to try and help these less experienced investors avoid losing money is another waste of time the only way they’ll learn their lesson is after they’ve lost more money than they can afford to lose no one will be able to tell them any different or show them a better way they have to learn for themselves, regardless of the cost

[vinmantoo]

My worst calls (equity failures).
Has anyone considered writing about their worst stock calls?

Mine was GTCB, which developed transgenic goats as means of drug production. The drugs could easily be extracted from the milk. It was a great system but I ignored other aspects, like how traditional cell culture production was improving, and that while GTCB was able to get a product approved, it wasn't going to be a money maker. I lost 90% of my investment and the worst part was after approval I could have gotten all my money back and a bit of profit but hung on instead of taking some money off the table. I learned a valuable lesson. Better to make less than you could have that to lose more than is comfortable.

[WorstLuck]

Just to throw some observations out that should be "obvious."

- You can make a bad call and have it work out well.
- You can make a good call and have it work out poorly.
- There's no "one simple trick."
- Having rules that help you don't always work, but they can be useful.