Replies to post #803837 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[jcromeenes]

Gov't and Hedges will make out great. They leave the smallest amount possible on the bone for retail. I'd be stunned if we even get 10%.

[The Man With No Name]

Honestly, fine by me. Leave us $15-21B and I’m happy. That correlates with $13-18 a share which is good in my book.

Reality is that would be a strong outcome under blue management. Red is far more rule of law/ownership rights and I’m thinking we end up with 20% of the company at a minimum.

I am still a tremendous fan of my dream scenario where they just exercise all warrants at a $3-5 strike to complete recap and release. That would put us at $30ish not counting the added billions from the cash added from warrant $ which would be $13-22b. If they went $3-5 on the strike.

Do what?!?

Where do you come up with this nonsense? Capital shortfall - i.e.- in the hole $100+ billion and you think that correlates with $13-18/share????

No. That correlates into ZILCH/share.

No new money will come into FnF with the SPS in place. NONE, NADA.

The only way FnF are released in the next 15+ years is with a SPS conversion to common. There is no other way.

When Paulson said Treasury would own 90-95% of the common, he was saying they will own that AFTER the SPS and JPS are converted into common (JPS would own 5-10%).

I will bet my left nut that legacy commons won't get more than $100 million in a restructuring, probably more like $50 million (or less).

Now go do the math again. This garbage gets repeated so much it's Goebbels-level propaganda. Tell a lie enough and it becomes the truth.