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SSKILLZ1

11/06/24 10:07 PM

#118148 RE: researcher59 #118146

I was too aggressive selling. Although thing is my plan should of worked, after I sold the market sold off like 7-8% but alot of stocks on my watch list didn't go lower than the price I sold over that period, in fact you even posted about it. And that is where I started to run into trouble, my call on the market in july was correct, it just didn't give me enough opportunities considering the selloff that I thought I was gonna get.

I'm a believer of seasonal pattern (You can call it market timing, but the data proves over the years that is the toughest period and tons of massive selloffs happen in that part of the calandar) and believe August-October are generally not a great period in the markets to be super aggressive, so I'm always less aggressive this part of the year and generally it works for me, not so much this year. But at this point the only smart thing to do is not chase. Now there are few individual stocksright now that if you buy them your not chasing. But I seen tons of stocks up 10%+ on no news today on my watch list that is generally a sign of getting close to a blowoff top considering the market was close to all time highs coming in. Now this part seasonally is giving me pause from getting more negative right now because I acknowledge seasonally this is a good time for the market generally, but at the sametime, there are so many stock on my watch list that simply are no longer interesting unless they selloffs at least 15% maybe more. And your not gonna get that on 1 day with no news generally, so simply have to wait for the most part at this point. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
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mankind

11/06/24 11:31 PM

#118149 RE: researcher59 #118146

Guessing game? By simply adding a 200 or 150 etc day ma to the sp500 as a filter would increase your rar. 
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valuemind

11/07/24 5:46 AM

#118152 RE: researcher59 #118146

We have similar strategy, but why are not you 100% invested? You could always use margin to buy new ideas first, and then sell some existing stocks to cover the margin.