Replies to post #500226 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[blackhawks]

No, I read in depth. These are the salient differences from '16 & '20:



"With a woman versus a man at the top of the ticket and with the prominence of the abortion issue in the wake of the Dobbs decision, we could have a historically large gender gap approaching a gender chasm this year," Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, told ABC News.

"I think you can't underestimate the power of the abortion issue," Celinda Lake, a veteran Democratic pollster, told ABC News.

That's especially true, Lake said, among younger women. Harris has an overwhelming lead (40 percentage points) among women ages 19 to 29 compared with Trump's 5-point advantage among men in that same age range, ABC News and Ipsos found.


And while he leads with white women, the largest voting bloc in the U.S., Trump is only edging out Harris by 4 points: 50% to 46%. (Trump won white women by 11 points in 2020 against Biden.)

[arizona1]

How Ann Selzer May Have Sunk Trump's Post-Election Clown Show Plan, ft. Jack Smith

The Lady Who May Have Just Short Circuited Trump's 2024 Plan

So, to cut to the chase, I think Ann Selzer’s Iowa Poll and her comments about how pollsters are...’miscalculating’ their likely voters may have just seriously damaged, if not outright destroyed Trumps post election plan. All of sudden, the news media was talking about how the polls could be wrong. Not just how the Polls could be wrong, but more crucially WHY they could be wrong. Now there are articles out there that anyone can read talking about polls undersampling women and overestimating other demographics, and how the early vote was pointing in this direction.

One of the best ways to defeat misinformation is to prime the public with actual information before the misinformation is introduced. Now the public knows about poll herding and ‘Red Wave’ polling. They know polls can very easily be wrong for reasons having to do entirely with the pollster behavior. In other words, if the election doesn’t follow the months of ‘Red Wave’ polling, there will be minimal public consternation. The public will just shrug and go ‘Eh, What are you gonna do? Polls are worthless these days.’

I wrote awhile back about why I thought Jack Smith fought so hard to get the January 6th evidence he’d collected out to the public. He saw Trump getting ready to try the same nonsense a second time, and wanted people to see how he was repeating himself. Specifically, buried in that dump was the revelation that Trump does not view the election as ‘the end’ of the process. They are going to make the stolen election argument again, and this time they even fabricated polls to back themselves up. Except now those polls are now worthless for that, because the problem with them was called out, and people know what to look for.

Its just my gut feeling, but it makes sense. Its why the Trump campaign suddenly went nuclear on one bad poll. Its why they spent the final few days of an election complaining about unfavorable polls instead of trying to get voters to the polls. They’ve given up on the election, and were moving on to their next plan. A plan that may already be dead in the water because of one honest poll.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/4/2282512/-How-Ann-Selzer-May-Have-Sunk-Trump-s-Post-Election-Clown-Show-Plan-ft-Jack-Smith?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web