Polls show Harris with big early-vote lead — despite GOP gains Nationally, Harris leads Trump by between 19 and 29 points among those who say they’ve already voted, which is more than Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The 2024 election has set records for pre-Election Day votes. And Republicans are increasingly excited about numbers that show their side has embraced early voting much more than it did in 2020. Elon Musk has gone so far as to predict that these numbers spell victory for Donald Trump.
But there are plenty of reasons not to overinterpret the data Musk and his allies are citing, as The Post’s Philip Bump and Lenny Bronner wrote Wednesday. Those include that 2020 was an unusual election held during a historic pandemic, that many early votes are “cannibalized” from voters who otherwise would have turned out on Election Day anyway, and — perhaps most notably — that we don’t actually know who these people are voting for.
Well, actually, we do have some clues about who they’re voting for. Polls are increasingly asking voters whether they voted early and publishing the breakdowns. And the picture for Republicans isn’t as rosy there as they might want to believe.
Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be banking a significant lead heading into Election Day, potentially bigger than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 — for whatever that’s worth.
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