Replies to post #253468 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

GSK had earnings - their RSV vaccine sales dropped even more than expected. PFE's RSV vaccine outgained GSK by quite a bit, and I have to think this was because of uptake in maternal immunization - I am not sure if PFE broke down adult vs maternal sales in their call.
GSK is confident that ACIP will recommend revaccination, but it is likely going to be somewhere between every 3-5 years per GSK. GSK vaccine efficacy in year 3 dropped to 48% and they feel lower than 50% could be a trigger for ACIP. GSK said they will have more data on boosting next year but "there is a clear trend" (I assume in titers). GSK is hoping to decouple RSV from the kind of seasonality you have with flu and covid. This would be helpful for PFE and GSK in the retail market where they are inundated in the fall/winter, but would like to promote vaccine sales in slower seasons
On the pneumococcus front GSK is going straight to 30+ valent in adults and not developing the 24 any longer for adults (they sound like they might still in peds). Must be the competitive environment. GSK is targeting phase 1 for the 30+ valent next year
Thought these tidbits might be of interest since PFE plays in the same space

[DewDiligence]

PFE issues 2025 financial guidance…

https://s28.q4cdn.com/781576035/files/doc_events/2024/Dec/17/FINAL-PFE-2025-Financial-Guidance-Press-Release.pdf

• Guidance for 2025 sales is $61-64B, up $1.2B from the range of $59.8-62.8B in 2024 guidance after excluding $1.2B of 2024 non-recurring Paxlovid sales to the US federal government stockpile. Thus, on an apples-to-apples basis, 2025 sales growth is expected to be flat to +5%.

• The 2025 sales guidance includes a $1B hit from the Medicare Part- D changes dictated by the IRA, i.e. drugmakers’ mandatory contributions to cover Part-D patients’ deductibles so that each patient’s annual out-of-pocket costs do not exceed $2,000.

• The 2025 sales guidance excludes pro rate equity income from Haleon because PFE is now a <20% shareholder in Haleon.

• Guidance for 2025 non-GAAP EPS is $2.80-3.00, up 10-18% from the 2024 range of $2.45-2.65 after excluding $0.30 of non-recurring 2024 earnings attributable to the Paxlovid item described above.

• 2025 COVID-related revenue is expected to be roughly the same as in 2024, excluding the $1.2B non-recurring Paxlovid item described above.

• 3.25x end-of-2025 target for debt/EBIDTA leverage.

• $500M in efficiency cost reductions to be realized during 2025, which is in addition to the $4.0B in such reductions already achieved during 2024.

CC slides:
https://s28.q4cdn.com/781576035/files/doc_events/2024/Dec/17/FINAL-Full-Year-2025-Guidance-Charts.pdf