Replies to post #496677 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[conix]

Kamala just needs to start communicating and not just reading teleprompters. The electorate is starting to get the vibe is that she cannot think for herself--OR--cannot communicate her thoughts and positions in an articulate fashion.

In a way, Trump has "benefited" from everyone already knowing who he is and how he talks. But it is alarming to many that the new kid on the block--Kamala--is revealing herself to be a bit of an empty vessel. And that vessel was who the Dems wanted to dump this time last year.

But, hey, Kamala will still win. Just watch.

[dbergh]

It is a close election, if trump wins America will once again lose. It's what trump wants, he destroyed America once, now he can do it again

Yeah I have to agree what a Shit Life under Trump
No wars - Low Inflation - Abundance of work - Wages rising faster than inflation > Only a F-ing Moron would want that

[fuagf]

The polls in the US presidential race are neck and neck but election
whisperer Dr Allan Lichtman says America has already decided

"It is a close election, if trump wins America will once again lose. It's
what trump wants, he destroyed America once, now he can do it again."

Related:

Allan Lichtman’s latest podcast included a significant factoid
53% of registered voters are women
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174803920

B402, Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174333343

In Trump's America a man who habitually cheats and lies is a hero. Worthy trials are kangaroo courts. Gag orders by judges attempting to uphold American law are scams. A lawbreaker, rightly charged for breaking laws, is a scapegoat. Those who believe a man who abuses women and who spits on America's rule of law is suited to the presidency feel persecuted when justice is served on the man. They believe a racist who when president was talked out of attacking Iran, and who encourages racism in American voters is fit to be president. That self-claimed persecuted ex-president promises his self-claimed persecuted supporters he will ban immigration from all Muslim countries. That racist encourages and panders to Islamophobic fears in millions of Americans by promising the ban. If you believe what Trump promises consider what that means:
[...]"Att: sideeki wink ‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’: can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?'
[...] And as he has often done, Trump misrepresented economic data to compare his record to Biden’s.
He baselessly asserted that “almost all” job growth was for undocumented immigrants. (It is true that job growth is higher among foreign-born workers since the pandemic because more of the native-born population is retiring.) He said a record 73 percent of Americans were living paycheck to paycheck, and the campaign provided a survey as support. But Federal Reserve data shows more than half of Americans have at least three months of savings available, the third-highest level on record, according to Matt Darling, an economic policy expert at the Niskanen Center, a Washington think tank.
P - He falsely suggested new manufacturing jobs hit zero under Biden for the first time ever. Trump bragged that the stock market hit record levels during his presidency, though the indexes rose higher since. Without evidence, he accused employment and economic figures of being “fake,” which Michael Strain, an economist at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, called “a reckless and irresponsible thing to say.”
P - Trump said he would refuse to spend money under Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act, deliberately defying a 1974 law that requires the executive branch to follow congressional funding decisions.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174348825

This article looks more designed for Australian audiences than for audiences more familiar with the American
scene as we have here, still some of our trolls could benefit from it and we are into helping them grow too.

By Norman Hermant
Norman Hermant is the ABC’s Moscow correspondent.

VIDEO 6m Experts predict that seven swing states will decide the US election. (Norman Hermant) 730

Thursday 10 October

Most political analysts in the US are reluctant to project a winner in this year's race for the White House. Not Professor Allan Lichtman.

Since 1984, Lichtman has been predicting presidential elections. In 10 races over four decades, he has a near-perfect record.

Nicknamed "Nostradamus", he's credited with being one of the few experts to project a Donald Trump victory in 2016, although critics say he predicted Trump would win the popular vote, which he lost.


US President-elect Donald Trump speaks at his election night rally in Manhattan, New York, US, November 9, 2016.

Professor Allan Lichtman correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory in the 2016 election. (Reuters: Carlo Allegri)

He uses a method developed with Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, renowned for making earthquake predictions.

"We looked at every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980 using the methods of pattern recognition," Dr Lichtman told 7.30.

Based on those patterns, Dr Lichtman developed a method that uses 13 keys to project the winner. His indicators include incumbency, short and long-term economy, social unrest, and White House scandals.


Professor Allan Lichtman has been predicting US presidential elections since 1984. (AFP: Pedro Ugarte)

"They reflected the basic proposition that American presidential elections are primarily votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White House Party," he said.

"The big message is that it's governing, not campaigning, that counts."

As poll after poll finds the margins between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are razor thin, Dr Lichtman believes what happens on the campaign trail doesn't make any difference to the outcome.

This year, he says, the keys point to Ms Harris being able to unlock the White House.

"It's real simple. If five or fewer keys go against the White House Party, they're predicted winners. If six or more go against the White House Party, they're predicted losers. So, six strikes and you're out," he said.

"I deliberately made my prediction before the Harris-Trump debate … because I wanted to make my big point that the keys are pretty much set because they're based primarily on governing."


This time around, Professor Lichtman is projecting a Harris-Walz victory. (Reuters: Kevin Lamarque)

"The keys point to America getting a path-breaking president, the first female
president, at least cracking, if not shattering the glass ceiling,
and the first president of mixed African and Asian descent."

The Electoral College system

Dr Lichtman is an outlier. Most political analysts watching the Harris and Trump campaigns battle it out believe the election is simply too close to call.

For weeks, the average of national polls in the US has shown Ms Harris with a slight edge over Trump.

But in America, national support doesn't determine who wins the White House. The Electoral College does.

Each state's Electoral College votes are determined by its population. For nearly all states, no matter the margin, if you win the state, you get all its votes.

And it takes 270 Electoral College votes to win.


Most analysts believe this year's election will come down to seven battleground states. (Reuters: Bryan Woolston)

Most experts believe this year's election will come down to seven swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.

These are the so-called battlegrounds that could vote either way. Most other states are considered to be safely in the Democrat or Republican column.

That means when it comes to the race for the White House, 43 states are essentially bystanders.

"This time you have a close national election, but so few of the states are actually competitive, so you really do see a laser focus on the handful of states that are really up for grabs," said Kyle Kondik of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.


Kyle Kondik says very few states are actually competitive in the national election. ( ABC News: Cameron Schwarz )

Kondik believes the "shrinking" of the presidential campaign map is a direct result of the Electoral College, which goes back to the founding of the United States.

"This is not a system that you would necessarily design from scratch
if you were starting it today. But that's the system that we have."

Australian political researcher and historian Emma Shortis lived in the US and completed her PhD there. She believes the shift away from presidential elections fought nationally in many states across America is a new phenomenon.

'Recent and real change'


Political researcher Emma Shortis has lived and studied in the US. (ABC News: Michael Nudl)

"It is a real change, and a relatively recent one where so few states are up for grabs," Dr Shortis told 7.30.

"It's worth remembering that a lot of it is also down to a concerted and long-time effort to gerrymander states,
so to manipulate electoral systems at the state level so that they become safe.

"They become really locked up by one party or the other."

And no matter who wins the election, Dr Shortis believes America's great political divide isn't going away.


No matter who wins, the political divide in the US is likely to continue after the November election.

"We won't have the answer to the question of American politics kind of wrapped up in a nice little present for us," she said.

"The divisions and the volatility, the dangerous state that American politics finds itself in is likely to continue long after the fifth of November."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-10/allan-lichtman-us-election-prediction-keys-kamala-harris/104455998