Senior Contributor Stuart Anderson writes about immigration, business and globalization.
Aug 10, 2024,09:38am EDT Updated Aug 16, 2024, 04:47pm EDT
A Border Patrol officer sits inside his car as he guards the US/Mexico border fence, in Nogales, ... [+]AFP via Getty Images
Illegal entry, based on border arrests, was lower in July 2024 than during Donald Trump’s last month in office, undermining the former president’s campaign message on immigration and border security. Government data confirm that recent immigration actions by the Biden administration and Mexico’s government have reduced Border Patrol encounters at the Southwest border, a proxy for illegal entry. Donald Trump argued he left office with the “most secure” border in history, but analysts pointed out that was untrue even before the July 2024 border numbers.
Image - The Decline In Border Patrol Encounters
There were 56,408 Border Patrol encounters along the Southwest border in July 2024, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters . (Note: The article has been updated to report the release of official data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.)
Border Patrol encounters along the Southwest border have dropped by more than 50% since February 2024. In February, the Border Patrol reported 140,638 encounters at the Southwest border compared to 56,408 in July 2024. The past months have seen a steady decline at the border punctuated by a sharper drop. Border Patrol encounters .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters .. along the Southwest border fell to 137,473 in March, 128,894 in April, 117,901 in May and 83,536 in June before plummeting to 56,408 in July.
The lower numbers have been felt in cities and shelters, explaining why border news has largely disappeared from newspaper front pages. “Shelters on the southern U.S. border and in some major cities that were inundated with migrants a year ago .. https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/democratic-cities-quietly-cooperating-ice-director-says-rcna162710 .. say they are seeing sharp declines in migrants seeking refuge, some reporting drops as high as 60% in just the past few months,” reported NBC News. “A shelter operator in Nogales, Mexico, the twin city of Nogales, Arizona, said he now gets about 60 to 100 U.S-bound migrants a day, down by 80% compared with last year.”
Government data do not support Donald Trump’s statement that he left the “most secure” border in history. In January 2021, Trump’s final month in office, there were 75,316 Border Patrol encounters .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters .. along the Southwest border. That is well above the 56,408 encounters reported in July 2024 under the Biden administration.
Illegal immigration rose significantly while Donald Trump was president, much of it driven by Central Americans fleeing their homes. Apprehensions at the Southwest border, a proxy for illegal entry, increased by more than 100 percent between FY 2016 .. https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2018-Mar/CBP-fy2016-border-security-report.pdf .. and FY 2019 .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration/fy-2019?language_content_entity=en .. (from 408,870 to 851,508), according to a National Foundation for American Policy analysis. In March 2020, with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, Border Patrol encounters declined. However, Border Patrol encounters on the Southwest border increased from 16,182 in April 2020 to 69,032 by October 2020, a rise of 327%.
Much of the increase in illegal immigration after Biden took office reflected the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, a more robust U.S. economy relative to the rest of the Western hemisphere and a large-scale refugee crisis in the region .. https://nfap.com/studies/the-historic-refugee-crisis-in-the-western-hemisphere/ . Government repression and economic problems in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and elsewhere have played a significant role in pushing migrants to the U.S. border.
Biden officials coordinated its actions with the Mexican government, which has made reaching the U.S. border far more difficult “thanks to a newly sprung security gantlet migrants encounter traveling to the U.S. border through Mexico,” reports the Wall Street Journal .. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/how-the-u-s-and-mexico-drove-border-crossings-down-in-an-election-year-6672071f?mod=hp_lead_pos4 . “On the Mexican side, security checkpoints dot highways. Mexico’s National Guard patrols the southern banks of the Rio Grande, aiming to prevent mass concentrations of migrants. Thousands of asylum seekers caught heading north have been put on buses and sent back to southern Mexico near Guatemala.”
In the long term,expanding legal pathways .. https://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Legal-Pathways-A-Humane-And-Effective-Option.NFAP-Policy-Brief.January-2024-1.pdf .. reduces illegal entry more effectively than traditional enforcement-only approaches. More means of legal entry could also ensure sustained cooperation from Mexico if part of a bilateral agreement. Economists point out that the U.S. economy needs workers, so designing a policy to admit more workers legally would be beneficial. According to a forthcoming NFAP analysis, immigrant workers are responsible for 88% of the labor force growth in America since 2019.
Given policies like family separation .. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2024/08/11/trumps-family-separation-immigration-policy-how-history-could-repeat/ .. under the Trump administration, it is unwise to evaluate immigration policies solely based on monthly border statistics. Still, it is understandable that people will call attention to data showing that the previous president’s last month in office had more illegal immigration than the current administration had in July 2024. Follow me on Twitter. Check out my website.
Stuart Anderson is a senior contributor to Forbes who writes about immigration, business and globalization. He is the executive director of the...
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