Replies to post #253026 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

I'm not informed enough to assess the valuation bc I just don't know the competitive landscape well. If you believe GSk is fizzling and PFE may have some difficult simply going to 30+ bc they have had some drop off in immune response as they increased valency in the past IIRC then you could justify the valuation pretty easily. The flip side is that if 38 or 40 is the magic number of serotypes where you essentially get about as much coverage as you need and someone else gets there first you are toast. I feel like right now the market is more or less baking in very high probability of a successful phase 3 and 1 maybe 2 competitors with similar offerings at similar time tables

[DewDiligence]

PCVX—(-55%)—reports purportedly-positive phase-2 data for VAX-24 in infants:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaxcyte-announces-positive-topline-results-110000250.html

Based on these findings, the Company has selected the VAX-24 Mid dose as the basis for advancement of an optimized dose formulation to a potential Phase 3 program and, pending the VAX-31 infant Phase 2 study topline data results anticipated in mid-2026, plans to initiate an infant Phase 3 study with either VAX-24 or VAX-31 [emphasis added].

Only the middle dose of the three doses tested met the primary endpoint of non-inferiority to PFE’s Prevnar-20.

If these VAX-24 data had been stellar, PCVX would presumably have advanced the program to phase-3 now rather than possibly going to phase-3 in mid-2026.

The Peter Marks news over the weekend has undoubtedly increased the magnitude of today’s PCVX selloff.

p.s. I’ve long thought that PCVX was overvalued (#msg-175027716).