Replies to post #252809 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

LLY offers Zepbound in_single-use_vials_at_sharply_reduced_prices—(yesterday’s_news):

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/27/well/eli-lilly-zepbound-price.html

On Tuesday, Eli Lilly announced that it would start selling low doses of its weight-loss drug Zepbound in vials… — at a far lower price than its pens, which come with pre-filled doses. These vials will be made available only through LillyDirect, a telehealth platform the company launched in January (https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-launches-end-end-digital-healthcare-experience-through ).

…The vials are significantly cheaper than Zepbound pens, which cost just over $1,000 a month without insurance. A month’s supply of the 2.5-milligram dose will cost $399, and a month’s worth of the five-milligram dose will cost $549.

… The company will offer vials with only the two lowest doses of Zepbound. Many patients stay on a five milligram dose… but some gradually increase their dose, up to a maximum of 15 milligrams. Any patient interested in taking more than the five-milligram dose would have to transition to the pens.

…the move could help Lilly regain customers who are currently getting compounded tirzepatide, which typically costs between roughly $250 and $450 a month.

Why would anyone want a compounded formulation of tirzepatide derived from Chinese API when they can get the real thing from LLY at close to the same price?

[DewDiligence]

LLY’s 3Q24 shortfall—(yesterday’s news):

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/eli-lillys-tirzepatide-products-come-more-1b-short-expectations

Sales of Eli Lilly’s diabetes and weight loss drugs fell far short of expectations in the third quarter, leading the juggernaut company to reduce its annual revenue guidance and triggering speculation that skyrocketing demand for the blood sugar modulating treatments has maxed out.

In the third quarter, sales of Mounjaro were at $3.11 billion, which came up significantly short of the analyst projection of $3.7 billion. Similarly, sales of obesity drug Zepbound reached $1.26 billion, failing to approach the analyst expectation of $1.7 billion.

…With the lackluster results, the Indianapolis company chopped $600 million from the top end of its annual revenue projection, taking the figure to $46 billion.

...During a conference call, Lilly execs voiced little concern over the sales shortfall.

The stock was down 6% yesterday, erasing about $50B in market cap.

LLY also sharply reduced 2024 guidance for non-GAAP EPS to a range of $13.02-13.52 (down from the prior guidance of $16.10-16.60), but this was mostly due to a non-cash charge for IPR&D.