Replies to post #252759 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

the CDC reduced the addressable US market for RSV vaccines by omitting adults age 60-74 without increased risk factors for severe disease, while also postponing any recommendation about booster shots

For sure this was a negative in this age group, but from GSK calls it sounds like market share among younger lower risk patients was low anyway, and the universal recommendation in the older age group is a positive but I do think net net the ACIP decision was a negative
The revaccination story again is only relevant for next season, but I wouldn't be surprised if RSV sales overall stall this year, and for MRNA specifically they have an uphill battle now that season 2 was clearly inferior to PFE and GSK (in fact it reinforces the notion that the mrna platform may not be ideal for vaccines intended for long duration like HSV - they should stick to flu and covid that require annual vaccination due to rapidly mutating virus, CMV which just needs coverage for the duration of a pregnancy, etc. I think they are wasting money on some of their projects w poor commercial prospects)

[DewDiligence]

MRNA spends far too much, says WSJ’s “Heard-on-the-Street” column:

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/pandemic-darling-moderna-needs-a-reality-check-3c375b0e

Moderna’s massive pipeline of 45 therapies and vaccines will be the focus of its R&D day next Thursday. But what investors most want to see is that program being trimmed.

Moderna is now bleeding cash at a worrying pace. Last year it reported a $4.7 billion net loss, and it is now on track to lose at least another $3 billion this year, according to analyst estimates compiled by FactSet. The company has made the case that it should begin to break even by 2026. But that isn’t looking likely given the slow uptake of the company’s second product, an RSV vaccine that has struggled to gain market share against shots from Pfizer and GSK.

… The good news is that, given the size of the company’s massive pipeline, there is plenty of room to find something like $1 billion in cuts.