I did some analysis on the past 6 months trading activity. not sure how to upload a photo here, so I'll just type out my findings.
Daily Volume / Daily SP Growth rate correlations (Past 6 months)
Findings:
- Typically a low volume / stable stock with long term growth potential.
- 71% of all trading days were below 500K volume
- This stock is NOT dilutive. 80% of days where losses were >-2% were on low volume days, less than 500K. Only 8% of days recorded a loss when volume was above 750K.
- approx half of all trading days, the stock movements floated between -2% loss and +2% gain, with 70% of those days being GAINS and 30% being Losses. ....ahem...long term play.
- This stock gaining days +2% or higher can be found on both high volume days and low volume days, nearly 50/50 split
- of the 15 days with volume over 1M: only 3 days with sp loss, other 12 days are sp gains at an average of 14% gain per day. The average consolidation following those gains is approx -2% to -3%. +11 to 12% gain differential each +1M volume level up day.
- Stock lost more than 5% on only 5 separate days, following these days the average "bounce back" sp gain is +7%. +2% Gain differential on each large loss day.
- Stock gained more than 5% on 23 separate days. Large gain days out pace large loss days by approx. 5 to 1.
- the last 3 bullet points mean that this stock RETAINS substantial Share Price growth after the "dust settles" when large gains are seen, and the Stock rebounds HIGHER after large loss days. That sounds like a win/win ratio to me. ;-)
Overall summary on "how to play" this stock.
- This stock is a "long term play" with minimal pullbacks creating minimal short term profit opportunities.
- low volume stock that moves UP on significant volume with modest/small pull-back period after each large volume/SP gain….aka people taking some profits
- If you do take profits on gaining days, please recognize there may not be chance to accumulate again at a lower level. (only modest pull-backs occur)
- The absolute BEST TIME TO BUY is DURING a Large Loss Day! If you wait for the next day-ish, the stock will rebound on avg +7% and you've missed a better buying opportunity.
- Institutional ownership is diverse and growing, with minimal groups exiting the stock.
- Based on this analysis.....TODAY is NOT a large loss day at -8%, because the stock grew 25% the past 2 days. I would anticipate tomorrow to finalize the pullback at around -4%, but that will be about it for the "pull-back" leaving the "gain differential" at around 13%....it's on to the next level up at that point.
Buy more shares either now or buy in the morning.....that's the best time to get more.
Bullish
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