Replies to post #251784 on Biotech Values

[Biowatch]

pick a flu strain on VERY short notice

could be an important tool to stop the spread in a confined setting like a ship or a hospital or university, etc.

These days, genome sequencing is fast and efficient, which is part of the equation.

No need to guess what strains are likely to be prevalent a year in advance, the current approach to producing flu vaccines that is hit or miss at best.

There are stories about bird flu showing up in cow’s milk which has farmers concerned. If the milk is pasteurized, the virus is destroyed, but at least one farm worker was infected.

So, although the sky is not falling, chicken little, the ability to recognize new strains and produce a vaccine quickly, even if in small quantities, is a definite plus.

[oc631]

SNY must believe either that the NVAX platform can enable you to pick a flu strain on VERY short notice

Most seasons we can expect a standard endemic covid and flu market with sufficient lead time to produce a protein-based option. SNY adds scalability and manufacturing that NVAX needed almost as much as they need cash. Yet the days of wallowing over picking the wrong seasonal strain are probably over with mRNA vaccines. Developers can change on a dime and offer a late-season alternative if needed. I'm convinced we are no longer wedded to annual decisions even though current guidance seems to suggest this. If a VOC strain were to emerge late this season it would have put NVAX out of business and now they are backstopped.

Just an observation on NVAX. They filed their 10-Q and the 8-K for their earnings release yet what's notably absent is the 8-K announcing the SNY deal (as of the time of this post). Anyone care to guess why? Anyone think there will be a follow-on offering on Monday?