Replies to post #251660 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

PFE expects_to_sell $3B of Paxlovid in 2024, even as many investors and analysts think of it as a dead product.

[DewDiligence]

PFE/MRNA—1Q24 COVID-vaccine worldwide_market_share—>68/32 in favor of PFE.

https://www.accesswire.com/858697/moderna-reports-first-quarter-2024-financial-results-and-provides-business-updates

PFE’s 2024 guidance for Comirnaty sales is $5.0B (#msg-174337807); MRNA has not issued 2024 guidance for Spikevax, but rather for total corporate revenue including the not-yet-approved RSV vaccine.

[DewDiligence]

PFE reports 2024 results—raises guidance_for Paxlovid, non-GAAP EPS:

https://s28.q4cdn.com/781576035/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/Q2-2024-PFE-Earnings-Release.pdf

2Q24 highlights

• 2Q24 revenue was $13.3B, +3% YoY—but +14% YoY excluding COVID-related revenue.

• 2Q24 sales of Comirnaty and Paxlovid were $195M and $251M, respectively. (See 2024 full-year guidance for these products below.)

• 1Q24 GAAP and non-GAAP EPS were $0.01 and $0.60, respectively. The GAAP figures include a ($0.18) charge for “manufacturing optimization” (i.e. facility consolidation).


2024 full-year guidance

• 2024 revenue guidance is $59.5-62.5B, up $1.0B at both ends from the guidance given three months ago.

• 2024 non-GAAP EPS guidance is $2.45-265, up $0.30 at both ends from the guidance given three months . (Both the old and the new guidance ranges include a negative $0.40 hit from SGEN, most of which stems from the net interest expense on the $43B of net debt PFE took on to fund the acquisition.)

• 2024 Paxlovid sales guidance is $3.5B, up $500M from the guidance given three months ago. 1H24 Paxlovid sales were $2.29B, implying 2H24 expected Paxlovid sales of ~$1.2B.

• 2024 Comirnaty sales guidance is $5B, unchanged from the guidance three months ago. Almost 90% of 2024 Comirnaty sales are expected to occur in 4Q23, due to seasonality. (1H24 Comirnaty sales were $548M.)


2Q24 CC slides:
https://s28.q4cdn.com/781576035/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/Q2-2024_Earnings-Charts-FINAL.pdf

2Q24 CC prepared remarks (synched with slides):
https://s28.q4cdn.com/781576035/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/Q2-2024_Earnings-Conference-Call-Prepared-Remarks-FINAL.pdf