This column was originally published on RealMoney on Feb. 28 at 7:24 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.
On the first day, chaos. Pure chaos. Tough to even get prices. That was 2001 and 1987 and, now, yesterday. Computer malfunctions, overwhelming short-selling from ETFs and derivatives gone awry obscure the battlefield totally.
On the second day, we get some order. Let's see: bonds up (rates down), gold cracked, copper down, perhaps a slowdown? So let's look at the slowdown stocks and see if there were any dislocations.
In fact, they're right in the Dow stocks, which seemed to take it on the chin from some derivative pressure and from some mistaken prices that made it so buyers couldn't get down fast enough to meet sellers.
To me, the five natural plays are:
Altria (MO) , which is now yielding far better than Treasuries and has taken out all of the fluff from the guessing of the restructuring
Procter & Gamble (PG) , which just gave up 3 hard-earned points
AT&T (T) , which got back to 4% yield yesterday (and much better after tax)
Coca-Cola (KO) , because we just got a series of upgrades predicated on the possibility of a real turn in that buyback giant
Exxon (XOM) , which is the most defensive oil and quickly gave up a move that had taken months to complete, a 3-point throwback.
We know, from the just-completed quarters, that all five of these stocks delivered solid results with good outlooks.
None of these stocks should have been down as much as they were. The problem, of course, is that I bet they all open up.
That's problematic. The history of big up days after big down days on a percentage basis is pretty decent, but the history of big down days on a point basis and then nice follow-through is more mixed. In other words, the appearance of a crash generates flipping by those who bought at the bottom yesterday and selling by those who conclude that this whole business is too risky.
But this selloff did make the cover of The New York Times, always a sign that we are late in it, although only in one column. When we were at the hedge fund, a two-column headline on the top of the Times was often all we needed to start buying.
Compounding things is that we probably gave up a percentage point and a half more than we should have because of computer errors, so it makes sense, with Europe stable, that we open up. I would do this with these end-of-chaos stocks. I would not buy them at the opening if they are up. I would just say, "Oops, didn't buy the chaos, missed them."
If they drop later, then you buy.
There is some benefit to buying the chaos. You don't have to stand there when they open them up; you can sell off a little and wait.
But when you buy up, you buy on yesterday's quicksand, which sometimes turns to terra firma but most often doesn't.
Random musings: We took some action in the chaos of yesterday in ActionAlertsPlus.com, so we are not worried about what to do today. Check it out ... Congratulations to Doug Kass for being "all in short" for the crash. I know that this was one of the best calls I have ever seen made, and Doug remains the must-read on the network of TheStreet.com sites.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Altria.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order his book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here.
TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Traders' Library under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Traders' Library purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.
Altria Group, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend of $0.86 Per Share Wednesday February 28, 8:28 am ET
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The Board of Directors of Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO - News) today declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.86 per common share, payable on April 10, 2007, to stockholders of record as of March 15, 2007. The ex-dividend date is March 13, 2007. In addition, Altria reaffirmed its intention to adjust its dividend following the distribution of Kraft shares on March 30, 2007, so that Altria shareholders who retain Kraft shares received as a result of the spin-off will receive, in the aggregate, the same cash dividend amount that existed before the Kraft spin-off. As in the past, all decisions regarding future dividend increases will be made independently by the Altria Board of Directors and the Kraft Board of Directors, for their respective companies. Additional information about the Kraft spin-off is available at http://www.altria.com/Kraftspinoff.
Contact: Altria Media Relations 917-663-2144
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Altria Group, Inc.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
