I agree. Cortex longs(myself included)are a bit scared after the long winter of purgatory we have just rode down from 6 down to 1 in less than a year.
Cities, buildings, teams all go through boom-bust cycles as do markets. I see nothing but interesting good news scenario: one after another for the next 12 months.
While I have penned many an angry screed against Cortex plan for in-licensing, it depends on the product that is brought in. Spectrum's lead oral platinum therapy against cancer, thought to be a 500 million dollar plus drug, was brought in for 100,000 dollars per Raj. I don't think Provigil cost an arm or leg for Cephalon.
The odds are against any company with bringing in a new product, but there is this quid pro quo scenario that they might entertain that might level the playing field a bit. Large pharma has all types of compounds in their closet. Much is doomed to the closet because of market size: say a scientist has an intriguing idea, and phase II proof of concept works out, the compound may be 'killed' because peak sales will not be met; not every company has a business model of Genzyme, most are looking at peak sales for 500 million, 1 billion and even one plus billion blockbusters to replace their tarnished pipelines. So, a company, a large pharma, could sweeten the pot for a high impact deal by giving or dealing away one of their compounds for high impact rights. High impacts are down the road, but have blockbuster potential, while compound X maybe have past muster for phase II for an orphan drug area but was killed for lack of sales potential. But the sales potential of 100-200 million in 2010 would be huge news, great for Cortex, and would certainly effect their share price, as other ampakine programs make there way through the clinic.
I also see and hope Cortex holds on to CX1501. This is a low impact from another family from CX717, 701 and ORG24448. Cortex could then have the money and energy to move CX1501 into sleep and narcolepsy.
So the multiple shots on goal hypothesis to be developed over the next 12 months works out like this:
1. Org 24448 for depression and schizophrenia, phase IIb.
2. CX717 and backup CX701 for ADHD, phase IIb later this year 717.
3. CX1501 for internal use for sleep by Cortex, phase I 2008.
4 High impacts for large pharma for neurodegeneration.
5. Some carve outs for high impacts for Huntington's, Fragile X.
6. Inlicensed compound, quid pro quo with large pharma, or not.
That's about six distinct shots on goals if I'm counting correctly.
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