Putin's irrationality meant no one could have prevented war: Canada's envoy to Ukraine
"Sweden Enters NATO, a Blow to Moscow and a Boost to the Baltic Nations "Hungary approves Sweden’s NATO membership. The Alliance reaches 32 members "Closer Ties to the West Don’t Mean Turkey Will Give Up On Russia""
Former Finnish PM says expansion of NATO is a 'win-win'
Christian Paas-Lang · CBC News · Posted: May 15, 2022 12:06 PM EDT | Last Updated: May 17, 2022
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, Canada's Ambassador to Ukraine Larisa Galadza and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raise the flag over the Canadian embassy in Kyiv on May 8. (Murray Brewster/CBC)
As Canada's embassy in Ukraine adapts to a new normal in the country, Ambassador Larisa Galadza says nothing could have prevented Russian President Vladimir Putin from launching his war against Ukraine.
"He wasn't believing history. He wasn't logical. He wasn't rational. He isn't rational. So, I don't know how one prevents that," Galadza said in an interview on Rosemary Barton Live .. https://gem.cbc.ca/media/rosemary-barton-live/s02 .. that aired Sunday.
Putin’s War in Ukraine Is a Watershed. Time for America to Get Real. "Chomsky: Let’s Focus on Preventing Nuclear War, Rather Than Debating “Just War [...] Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine should provoke moral outrage in all of us, and, at least in principle, it warrants his removal from office. But Mr. Putin could well remain the leader of a major power into the next decade, and Washington will need to deal with him.
This friction between lofty goals and realpolitik is nothing new. The United States has since the founding era been an idealist power operating in a realist world — and has on balance succeeded in bending the arc of history toward justice. But geopolitical exigency at times takes precedence over ideals, with America playing power politics when it needs to.
During the Cold War, Washington promoted stability by tolerating a Soviet sphere of influence and cozying up to unsavory regimes willing to fight Communism. In contrast, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, America operated under conditions of geopolitical slack; great-power rivalry was muted, enabling Washington to put front and center its effort to promote democracy and expand a liberal, rules-based international order.
What, then, is the path forward? The war in Ukraine now confronts the United States with the need to tilt back toward the practice of realpolitik. Washington’s commitment to keeping NATO’s doors open to Ukraine was a laudable and principled stand against an autocratic Russia. Yet America’s idealist cause has run headlong into Russian tanks; Washington’s effort to do right by Ukraine has culminated in Russia’s ruthless effort to put the country back under Moscow’s sway.
Mr. Putin has just sent history into reverse. The United States should seek to foil and punish Moscow’s aggression, but Washington also needs to be pragmatic to navigate a world that, even if more unruly, is also irreversibly interdependent.
The Gap Between Means and Ends
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed a gap between America’s ideological aspirations and geopolitical realities that has been widening since the 1990s. During the heady decade after the end of the Cold War, Washington was confident that the triumph of American power and purpose cleared the way for the spread of democracy. A primary instrument for doing so was the enlargement of NATO.
But from early on, the American foreign policy establishment allowed principle to obscure the geopolitical downsides of NATO enlargement. Yes, NATO membership should be open to all countries that qualify, and all nations should be able to exercise their sovereign right to choose their alignments as they see fit. But geography and geopolitics still matter; major powers, regardless of their ideological bent, don’t like it when other major powers stray into their neighborhoods.
It’s true that Moscow’s dismay at the prospect of Ukraine’s membership in NATO most likely is fed in part by nostalgia for the geopolitical heft of the Soviet days, Mr. Putin’s paranoia about a “color revolution” arising in Russia, and mystical delusions about unbreakable civilizational links between Russia and Ukraine. But it is also true that the West erred in dismissing Russia’s legitimate security concerns about NATO setting up shop on the other side of its 1,000-mile-plus border with Ukraine.
All major powers desire strategic breathing room — which is precisely why Russia has objected to NATO’s eastern expansion since the end of the Cold War. NATO may be a defensive alliance, but it brings to bear aggregate military power that Russia understandably does not want parked near its territory. April, 2022 -- https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=168521246
Why Superpower Crises Are a Good Thing "China blocks some Taiwan imports but avoids chip disruptions "Too concerned re Pelosi visit? -- China angered after Taiwan opens diplomatic office in Lithuania"" August, 2022 -- https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169603820
a year ago - Russia could have joined NATO. But why didn't they do it? [...] Some experts believe it could have been real if the West had taken Russia’s membership prospects seriously back in 2000 or the 1990s when Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader, and Russian Federation’s first President Boris Yeltsin also lobbied .. https://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/98-00/davydov.pdf .. for Moscow’s entrance to the alliance. Had it happened, the current Russian onslaught on Ukraine could have been prevented .. https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/591036-invite-russia-to-join-nato .
“Because they thought that they had won the Cold War and could dictate all the terms as Russia was 'beaten'. They were high on the euphoria of a perceived victory rather than a massive opportunity for peace and security,” says Gregory Simons, an associate professor at the Institute for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Uppsala University.
“They did not regard Russia as an equal and probably thought to use the idea of membership as a means of compliance. Like the EU has done to Turkey for years,” Simons tells TRT World. [...] But other experts believe that if Russia is not a NATO member, it is not the fault of the Western alliance. “Yes. In the 1990s, Russia and NATO discussed whether or not Russia might want to become a member of NATO. I think Russia never wanted it, and it was never serious,” says Matthew Bryza, the former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic. June, 2023 -- https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172149693
The outgoing Dutch PM has been confirmed after seven months of campaigning.
Rutte would need all 31 NATO allies' endorsement before he could be nominated to succeed Jens Stoltenberg | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images
June 20, 2024 1:47 pm CET By Stuart Lau
BRUSSELS — Mark Rutte will be the next NATO secretary-general after all 32 members of the alliance agreed that the outgoing Dutch prime minister will succeed Jens Stoltenberg.
During a meeting of the Supreme Council of National Defence, Iohannis said he had notified NATO allies about the withdrawal of his candidacy.
Rutte will take over NATO’s leadership at a critical time. His new job will begin by Oct. 2, just over a month before the U.S. election, which will shape the fate of the military alliance that has served as Eastern Europe’s most successful deterrence to an aggressive Russia. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, the current Republican candidate, has pledged to stay in NATO .. https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-says-he-wont-quit-nato-if-europe-pays-its-way/ .. but threatened to cut U.S. aid to Ukraine .. http://cut US aid to Ukraine quickly if reelected .. if reelected.
Observers, though, credit Rutte for being a “Trump whisperer,” thanks to his ability to make deals with politicians from different backgrounds, even earning the then-U.S. president’s praise: “I like this guy!”
Having Rutte confirmed also means the succession issue is cleared up before July when NATO leaders head to Washington to mark the alliance’s 75th anniversary.
Rutte’s quest for the NATO top job has been a long journey. He has been campaigning for the job since last November.
Rutte has been criticized for not being active enough in canvassing support from Eastern European countries, who questioned his pre-2014 support for Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline project.
Rutte also continuously failed to bring Dutch defense spending up to NATO’s target of 2 percent of GDP throughout his 14-year premiership of the EU’s fifth-largest economy. The Netherlands is finally expected to meet that target this year, according to NATO’s latest figures.
Romania’s President Iohannis threw his hat into the ring at a late stage. When he declared his candidacy in March, two-thirds of all NATO allies had already sided with Rutte. Throughout his three-month race, Iohannis only managed one vote among the 32 allies — that of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who used his holdout to gain leverage and secure Hungary’s opt-out from NATO’s Ukraine tasks and financing.
Rutte’s selection also follows a drawn-out process that saw Stoltenberg’s term extended four times.
In 2017, allies opted to extend the secretary-general’s term until the end of September 2020. In 2019, they moved that date to September 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted another extension, which was set to run through September 2023. In July last year, NATO allies agreed to extend Stoltenberg’s term as secretary-general by a year.
“I’m very confident that the alliance will find a good successor,” Stoltenberg told POLITICO last week.
"Sweden Enters NATO, a Blow to Moscow and a Boost to the Baltic Nations [...]Sweden formally joined NATO on Thursday, becoming its 32nd member two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sharply bolstering, with Finland, the military alliance’s deterrent in the Baltic and North Seas. P - With the addition of the new Nordic member states — Finland joined last year — the president of Russia, Vladimir V. Putin, now finds himself faced with an enlarged and motivated NATO, one that is no longer dreaming of a permanent peace but instead facing years of trying to contain a newly aggressive, imperial Russia."
Break-ins at water treatment plants are a prime example of gray-zone aggression. The Finnsmay never know who did it, but they must resist succumbing to fear.
By Elisabeth Braw, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Finnish and Swedish units simulate a naval attack. Swedish and Finnish Amphibious Forces Take Part In NATO Military Drill “Baltops 22” In Stockholm Archipelago on June 11, 2022. Jonas Gratzer/Getty Images
July 26, 2024, 4:32 PM View Comments (0)
This summer, mysterious intruders have been breaking into Finnish water towers and treatment plants. They’ve stolen nothing, which is unsurprising, since there would be little to steal. But there are other reasons people might want to break into water treatment plants: to scout them out for future attacks—or to cause the public to worry about the safety of the water in their taps. By disabling water treatment or adding a contaminant, an intruder could turn the life-giving liquid into a source of disease.
So far, the Finnish authorities have not apprehended any suspects. The break-in campaign, though, is a prime example of the nonmilitary aggression that Russia has perfected. So is the coordinated sabotage .. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/26/france-rail-disruptions-scnf-olympics/ .. that brought down French rail lines just as the Olympic Games were about to begin and only days after French police arrested a Russian national in a suspected plot to cause “destabilization” during the Games.
The water attacks in Finland began in Porvoo, a town on the southern coast, where authorities reported that someone had tried to break into the town’s water tower twice. Then Sipoo, near Helsinki, also on Finland’s southern coast, reported break-in attempts at its water plant, too. As in Porvoo, the attackers had targeted the plant two nights in a row. Finland’s southern coast is ordinarily rather quiet, but then again, its immediate neighbor is the Gulf of Finland, the passageway for ships going to and from St. Petersburg. One can never really be sure who is sailing past.
By mid-July, there had been 11 break-in attempts .. https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10060468 .. into Finnish water towers and treatment plants. “The break-ins reported this far have not been serious ones and not targeted against the most critical sites, which are more heavily secured, but the worrying thing is that the number of break-in has increased at this very moment,” said retired Lt. Gen. Arto Raty, whose military roles included overseeing Finland’s famous National Defense Course, in which leaders from all parts of society learn about threats to the country. (Raty now works in the private sector.)
The intruders didn’t reach any sensitive parts in the water plants and towers. But with such a noticeable string of attacks having taken place within just a few weeks, Finnish authorities must prepare for more. Several city councils have already decided to strengthen .. https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10060503 .. security around their water facilities, starting with more fences and more camera surveillance.
Authorities are also asking: Who would have an interest in breaking into Finnish water plants? So far, they haven’t apprehended anyone or publicly identified a suspect. The intruders, though, are unlikely to have been ordinary criminals. “These are not the sort of break-ins criminals would commit,” said retired Maj. Gen. Pekka Toveri, a former chief of Finnish military intelligence who is now a member of the European Parliament.
Indeed, thieves know that it’s hard to reach the sensitive parts of water facilities, and at any rate, expensive technology would be easier to steal elsewhere. One might suspect environmental extremists—but they stage highly public protests, not break-ins under the cover of darkness, and not even the most fanatical environmental extremist would think it a good idea to attack water sources. Terrorists, too, go for attacks that create maximum publicity, and no known terrorist groups have a beef with Finnish operators of critical national infrastructure.
One actor, though, has an interest in frightening Finns: the Kremlin. “The water treatment companies have said that the break-ins are not a normal situation, and that’s making people worried,” Toveri said. “And one goal of Russia’s gray-zone aggression is to create fear.” Raty added: “We have no evidence showing who is behind these actions, but naturally in speculations the finger is pointing to the east.”
Russia has a clear interest in harming Finnish critical national infrastructure—and in insinuating to the Finnish public that its infrastructure is unsafe. Before Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Kremlin reacted to every suggestion along the lines of NATO accession by threatening unspecified consequences. When the two countries eventually joined, Russia’s armed forces were so bogged down in Ukraine that no so-called consequences took place.
Last fall, Russia began bringing so many migrants to the Finnish border—with the purpose of overwhelming the Finnish authorities—that Helsinki had to shut the crossings altogether. Russia appears to have been involved in the mysterious sabotage of two undersea cables and one pipeline in Swedish, Finnish, and Estonian waters, also last fall: The suspected perpetrator, a Chinese container ship, had worked extensively with Russian authorities and sailed to and from Russian Baltic Sea ports before and after the incidents.
[Insert: There is an instigator of many trouble-making enterprises whom is seldom apportioned any blame at all for America's southern border crisis. Perhaps Putin has money invested into any number of people smuggling businesses too. Oh...]
Russia can, in fact, keep coming up with new forms of aggression in the gray zone between war and peace because it faces no punishment for such aggression. Western countries are simply not going to respond eye for eye. Imagine if the governments of liberal democracies rounded up asylum-seekers and deposited them at the Russian border or allowed cybergangs based in the West to paralyze Russian hospitals.
Indeed, Russia can keep innovating in the gray zone using not just the government’s own personnel but all manner of freelancers, too. The coordinated sabotage of French high-speed rail lines is another example of gray-zone aggression; the sophistication of the attack suggests a state actor, but we may never know who did it.
Western governments can suspect a link between seemingly independent perpetrators and the Kremlin, but proving such links is virtually impossible. “Russia could just have paid some criminals to break into the water plants—we just don’t know,” Toveri said. “But what we do know is that the break-ins are tying up the authorities’ resources and creating fear among people.”
Finland is not the first country to see its water supply targeted. This May, Janet McCabe, the deputy administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), warned .. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cyberattacks-on-water-systems-epa-utilities-take-action/ .. that China, Russia, and Iran were “actively seeking the capability to disable U.S. critical infrastructure, including water and wastewater.” Last year, for example, the Iranian-linked hacker group Cyber Av3ngers took control .. https://cyberscoop.com/pennsylvania-water-facility-hack-iran/ .. of some of the water functions in the Pennsylvania town of Aliquippa, which forced the water authority to switch to manual operations.
“Drinking water and wastewater systems are an attractive target for cyberattacks because they are a lifeline critical infrastructure sector but often lack the resources and technical capacity to adopt rigorous cybersecurity practices,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned .. https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/epa-apnsa-letter-to-governors_03182024.pdf .. in a letter in March. Indeed, the water authority of Aliquippa (population: 9,000) versus the government of Iran is hardly a match of equals. Nor is the Finnish municipality of Sipoo (population: 22,500) versus the Kremlin.
It will take a lot to stir up fear among Finns, who have seen their share of Russian overt and covert aggression. But the prospect of one’s water being harmed is bound to create worries; after all, not even an invasion is as dangerous as the widespread poisoning of drinking water. Regardless of whether Russia is connected to the break-ins into Finnish water plants, the resulting anxiety will certainly please the Kremlin. Meanwhile, the rest of us can also do our part—by not panicking and by keeping some bottled water at home.
Elisabeth Braw is a columnist at Foreign Policy, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and the author of "Goodbye Globalization." Twitter: @elisabethbraw
Land cost burdensome? -- Swedish town's attention-grabbing campaign to sell land for price of a coffee could save it
"Sweden Enters NATO, a Blow to Moscow and a Boost to the Baltic Nations "Hungary approves Sweden’s NATO membership. The Alliance reaches 32 members "Closer Ties to the West Don’t Mean Turkey Will Give Up On Russia""
By Michelle Rimmer and Andrew Greaves in Götene, Sweden
3h ago
The town of Götene, Sweden, has a "wild idea" to encourage people to move there. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves)
There's a saying in Sweden; "to cook soup on a nail".
It means to make something from nothing by being creative with what little you have.
Right now the town of Götene, about 300 kilometres from the country's capital, Stockholm, is embracing that mantra.
Faced with a housing slump and declining population, previously unwanted blocks of land are on the market for roughly the price of a cup of coffee.
Mayor Johan Månsson was hopeful the "wild idea" might encourage a few people from other parts of Sweden to move to the area. But the response has far exceeded that.
"We've had inquiries and expressions of interest from basically every corner of the world," he says.
"It basically exploded globally in a way that is really indescribable.
"We saw a viral media snowball start rolling across the entire globe getting bigger and bigger by the day — first through Europe, on to Asia and North America, South America and eventually to Australia."
Mayor Johan Månsson has been shocked by the interest in the discounted land. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves)
Götene has about 5,000 residents, while there's another 13,000 in the wider municipality.
The community is on the shores of Lake Vänern — Europe's largest lake outside of Russia — and boasts a UNESCO-recognised mountain plateau.
It's a popular spot for tourists, but few people stay long term.
In April, the local government put 29 blocks of land on the market at the heavily reduced rate of 1 Swedish krona per square metre, the equivalent of 15 Australian cents.
Anyone in the world can buy the cheap plots on the condition they begin building a house on the land within two years, can open a Swedish bank account and pay water and sewerage connection fees.
"This was basically a wild idea to give the local housing market a push, an injection, because we've seen a period of high interest rates and a minor recession, so we felt we needed to try something new to help get the market back on track because we, as a municipality, we need to grow," Mr Månsson says.
"We are seeing an aging population and a birth-rate decline … that means we have to think creatively and do new things to attract new residents and, perhaps most importantly, to keep the young ones. We basically need more taxpayers."
Three of the cheap plots have already sold but the rest are still available and have gone to a bidding process after thousands of potential buyers expressed interest.
Lake Vänern, near the town of Götene, is a major tourist drawcard. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves)
Towns across Sweden shrinking
A declining population is an issue many small towns across Sweden are grappling with, according to Gothenburg University social sciences lecturer Ylva Norén Bretzer.
"The share of the working population is very small so the tax resources they have to provide for welfare and social services are very low," Ms Norén Bretzer says.
"It's often very problematic to bring up a family, to get child care and access to schools and hospitals, all the kind of welfare services that we often take for granted in the big cities."
She blames a lack of job prospects for the mass exodus to metropolitan areas, but Götene is in a different position; it has a booming jobs sector with vacancies ready to fill.
"We jokingly say that we are Sweden's Silicon Valley for the food industry," Mr Månsson says.
"We are located in a very strong industrial region where the industrial sector right now is growing rapidly."
Prosperous farms around Götene mean there are plenty of jobs in associated industries. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves )
Local food manufacturer Dafgårds has 1,400 staff and is the region's largest employer.
It produces ready-made meals, including the iconic Swedish meatballs that are sold worldwide.
The company's HR manager, Niclas Renström, hopes the town's cheap land campaign will bring much-needed workers to the area.
"It's a very strong labour market where we live," Mr Renström says.
"It's actually one of the strongest in Sweden at the moment, so we're depending on getting skilled workers to come here to be able to keep our growth going.
"It's everything from producing the foods themselves, to HR, sales, marketing.
"We have quite a big variety of jobs. We counted some 90 different types of jobs."
As well as being home to numerous food-manufacturing hubs, Götene is less than 30 minutes drive from a new battery factory, which is expected to employ 3,000 people when production begins in 2030.
The wider acceptance of remote working since the COVID-19 pandemic has also opened up new opportunities for towns like Götene.
"It is a game changer with these remote jobs that are maybe on the other side of the globe, and that can definitely help these local rural areas to change their situation, both with getting people to stay and to decide they want to set up their future there," Ms Norén Bretzer says.
Niclas Renström is hoping for an influx of new residents in the area to fill job vacancies. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves)
'Every new family is worth their weight in gold'
Götene's housing market woes are a symptom of a national housing crisis in Sweden.
In February, the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce warned a slump in new housing construction could cost the economy 1,000 billion krona ($145 billion) by 2030.
Other Swedish localities will be watching to see if Götene can break that trend and generate new residential construction through its viral campaign.
"I think that it's a bit of a test and try," Ms Norén Bretzer says.
"Many other rural municipalities in Sweden are now looking to Götene to say, 'Oh, what a response. Maybe we could do some of that as well.'"
Ylva Norén Bretzer says a lack of job prospects means many Swedes choose to leave regional areas. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves)
If this first round of bargain block sales in Götene is a success, the town is considering putting more plots on the market.
"We couldn't imagine this in our wildest imagination, but I wouldn't hesitate to do it again," Mr Månsson says.
"We have a lot more land, we have newer plots that are not included in this campaign and, due to the attention this has received, we have high hopes of selling those as well."
The mayor had this message for any Australians considering a move to Götene.
"You're very welcome. We welcome any new residents, provided they obtain all necessary permits and clearances, and are willing to enrich and contribute to our community," he says.
"Every single person, every new family, is worth their weight in gold to us."
The town of Götene in ready to welcome new residents, as long as they meet certain criteria. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves)
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