Replies to post #463267 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[brooklyn13]

There was a theory at one point that part, or most, of Putin’s aggression towards Ukraine was to take control of it agricultural production.

That climate change has ruined a lot of Russia’s capabilities and they certainly aren’t producing enough for export,

Russia,at this point, iappears only able to export cyberterrorism. They lose money on every barrel of oil they export to Asia and their economy seems to be truly fucked. Numbers to the contrary are provided by Putin and are not verifiable.

[fuagf]

For sure. Good point. "It can be argued that he's more afraid of having free market economies on his doorstep. NATO has never shown any interest in taking any Russian territory. The idea that Ukraine would join the EU was more concerning to Putin than the idea of Ukraine that Ukraine would join NATO. First, Ukraine is rich in arable land and natural resources. And second the people are closely related to the Russians and a prosperous Ukraine would be stand in stark contrast to Putin's failures."

Guessing there would likely be more of that in his mind than his, more widely stated in the West, NATO fear. He'd know the NATO fear would ring more strongly in his domestic audience's ears.

We see interviewed Russians saying how much they appreciate Putin being strong and standing tall for Russia nationalism, still though apparently the economy has better growth and deficit figures at present than the E.U., there has to be many more cursing him for taking their children from them. And for the high interest rates they are experiencing. See:

Att: B402/12yearplan Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win

"Why the Russian Economy’s Luck is Running Out"
[Insert Feb. 24, 2024 - Despite climbing rates, Russia’s main economic problem is not inflation, but capital flight. Russia usually has a large current account surplus. But this is regularly matched by a substantial net outflow of capital, as the country invests large amounts of money abroad. In 2022, Russia’s current account surplus spiked to a record $236 billion, while $239 billion was pulled out of the country.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173895842]

[...]

Russia’s public spending is at unprecedented levels, and around 40% of the government budget is spent on the war. Total military spending is expected to reach more than 10% of GDP for the year 2023 (the UK figure is 2.3%).

[...]

And it is a war that Russia cannot afford .. https://theconversation.com/the-cost-of-war-how-russias-economy-will-struggle-to-pay-the-price-of-invading-ukraine-178826 .. to win. The cost of rebuilding and maintaining security in a conquered Ukraine would be too great, and an isolated Russia could at best hope to become a junior partner entirely dependent on China.

[...]

A protracted stalemate might be the only solution for Russia to avoid total economic collapse. Having transformed the little industry it had to focus on the war effort, and with a labour shortage problem worsened by hundreds of thousands of war casualties and a massive brain drain .. https://www.npr.org/2023/05/31/1176769042/russia-economy-brain-drain-oil-prices-flee-ukraine-invasion .. the country would struggle to find a new direction.

Thirty-five years after the fall of the Berlin wall, it has become clear that resource-rich Russia has become much poorer .. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?end=2022&locations=RU-PL-HU-EE-LV&start=1990 .. than its former Soviet neighbours such as Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Hungary, who pursued the route of European integration.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173904526

Those articles for me are convincing and until i see something more
am sticking with the personal comment added at bottom in that one:

In the big picture -- Putin is losing. Ukraine is losing. The West is winning.