12yearplan, Damned if i know why you label the sanctions as "token" when because of them Russia's economy has gone from a much more diversified one to one based virtually wholly on it's war on Ukraine. That's bad news for the West and Ukraine, of course, but the evidence is that's muchly because of the sanctions.
Also others i've seen don't mention the instability of Russia's economy born out of it's worsening liquidity crunch because of the capital flight and the sanctions hindering incoming capital. Or the incredibly high interest rates in an effort to stabilize the flight.
Why the Russian Economy’s Luck is Running Out [...] The many weaknesses in the Russian economy nonetheless remain apparent. GDP has not grown above pre-2014 levels because of Western financial sanctions and its odious kleptocracy. It is not very stable. The exchange rate of the ruble jumps like a yo-yo. The underlying reason for this is massive capital flight, Russia’s exclusion from international financial markets, and its limited liquid reserves. Russia also suffers from ever-tighter sanctions that cut the country off from critical technology such as advanced microchips. P - Before 2014, the ruble exchange rate was relatively stable at 32 rubles per U.S. dollar. It then halved in value because of Western financial sanctions passed in response to Moscow’s occupation of Crimea and the Donbas. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the severe Western sanctions that followed, once again halved the exchange rate to 135 rubles per dollar. P - Russia’s Central Bank managed to restore some confidence in the ruble through a drastic interest rate hike from 9.5% to 20%. By June 20, 2022, it recovered to 50 rubles per dollar. Yet, inflation rose from 7% before the war to 17% in April because of the financial panic caused by such a large devaluation. [...] Thanks to a Western boycott of Russian oil and the imposition of a price ceiling for other countries that choose to import it, revenue from oil exports has fallen sharply. There remain some problems with the enforcement of these sanctions, especially on rogue dealers and a shadow fleet of Russian tankers. But the West has started to impose new sanctions on these violators. As a result, Russia’s total export revenues are likely to plummet by about one-quarter to some $470 billion. [ Why Sanctions Haven’t Hobbled Russia Moscow’s continued strength is a humbling result for the U.S. and its allies. [...] The West chose not to put in place some tough measures, such as a full oil embargo, for fear they could disrupt the global economy. Unlike some nations the U.S. has penalized before — think of Cuba, Iran and Venezuela — Russia is better integrated into world trade. It exports commodities other countries need, such as steel and fertilizer. And it still provides much of Europe’s energy. Pain aimed at Russia would be felt well beyond its borders. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/briefing/russian-sanctions.html ] [...] Putin’s problem is that he cannot finance any larger budget deficit because the Western financial sanctions block Russia from borrowing money from abroad, despite it only having a public debt of 15% of GDP. Nobody wants — or dares — to lend Russia money anymore. [...] While Russia might technically experience some economic growth this year, the economy appears increasingly Soviet in both its structure and key indicators. Unemployment has fallen to 3%, but the average dollar wage has plummeted from $1,200 a month in 2013 to currently slightly less than $600 a month today https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173895842 .
clearly more oil sanctions had not been taken because of the fears that would have on the world economy. That feels a fair point to me.
applauding the content of B402's article, contradicts mine.
On the fact Russia's economy has been forced from a relatively healthy more diversified one to a war economy under considerable strain see my next post in reply to the one of mine you said was off course. An economy more dependent on the war than ever thanks to his war on Ukraine. And thanks to the Western sanctions because of his war. That is of course bad news for Russian citizens. And bad news for the world. Still the sanctions have clearly had more than a "token" effect.
"Yes, that's the history. To be fair the US alone has spent 75B. Germany next highest. Unfortunately, looks like Russia will keep the territory taken and for some time. P - You are likely correct - business as usual going forward. Token sanctions and cont'd profits. "
How could you have missed the fact B402 has not acknowledged it is not Biden who is holding back Ukraine aid.
And since both you and B402 piffle the Western sanctions. Looks to me you both miss much of the underlying current.
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