"the announcement will be after hours and and you’ll be locked out… "
Being locked out (= holding no commons when the announcement hits) might actually be an advantage. Because the announcement of recap/release - which I agree will certainly come after hours - could send commons down to below 10 cents if FHFA and Treasury decide to get rid of the SPS through an SPS-to-common conversion. No one here can rule that out, and according to KThomp, the probability is as high as 75%.