The polls are all over the place, but what have Republicans won in the past 6 or 7 years? Hell, they haven't won the popular vote in a presidential election since 2004, and before that 1988.
Abortion has been an overwhelming driver since Roe was overturned, and with the economy on a tear the way it is, I wouldn't put much stock in polls right now.
Trump is enormously popular with his base, he's not making much ground outside of that cult of personality.