Agreed with most of what you said, except I'd add that it would be at least another 50% collapse if/when he wins.
Docketing note, I looked around at other cases and saw how they were scheduled. While the do let says "Briefing Completed/To screening," this doesn't mean that it has been put on anyone's desk yet. Also, I saw tweets claiming it would be reviewed by the Court of Appeals, but that is premature.
For cases sent to the COA, there was a new docket entry assigning the case to the COA (with a new docket number ending in "-COA") and then it took a few months for a decision. We haven't seen that entry yet, so it's still with the Supreme Court for now.