As Critobal Colon set off across the Atlantic on a journey of uncertain distance and duration in search of a shorter route to India, one faster and cheaper than through the treacherous waters off the Cape of Good Hope on the southern tip of Africa, most good citizens of Spain watched their departure with hope, anticipation and some concern as their friends and family members sailed off into uncharted territory. One notable exception was a self-styled fortune teller known as Helios the Blemished. Helios passionately told anyone who would listen, that the voyage was doomed. No ship had ever returned from such a foolish undertaking. After all the “smart” people knew the world was flat and any fool venturing beyond the end of the ocean would perish by falling off the edge of the earth into oblivion. “They will never return” Helios the Blemished explained, “They didn’t return yesterday, they didn’t return last year, therefor they will never return!” he pronounced emphatically. “Only stupid people believe the world is round!”
When Cristobal Colon and several of his original crew finally made their way back to Spain, they arrived carrying tobacco, some gold, and all manner of exotic items procured on their trip. Helios was infuriated. He began screaming “you didn’t reach India so everything you have done as I predicted was a failure!” The Queen of Spain disagreed. “We have proven the world is not flat, we have reached new unknown lands, we have discovered islands and continents.” Had we only reached India our opportunities for huge fortunes and discoveries would be miniscule compared to what we can now amass.” Helios, unbowed, again screamed “you did not reach India so it was all a waste. Cristobal said he would reach India and he didn’t so this was all for Naught. All you people are stupid you can’t see the truth!”
The queen finally tired of Helios’ temper tantrums and looked for a suitable punishment. She thought that Helios the Gelding had a nice ring to it but decided against punishing Helios at all after her advisors pointed out that Helios had already self-castrated his own reputation and would live the remainder of his life in dishonor.
Moral of the story: Fortune tellers are only right until they are not, and all that has to happen is one event disproving their screeds and they will characterize it as their victory as long and as often as they can because like everyone else, they have no better idea about the outcome until everything has played out. What they do have just an unnatural attachment to being right, a penchant for using less than the full set of facts, a disregard for the calendar more than a day out, and endless hours to repeat their story.
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