Whalatane/Vin/Mufaso
Here's my opinion on the Weight Control Market:
First, Let's look at the Market. It's projected to be $100B within five years. I can see it happen but to put that number out they're assuming the drugs are going to be priced like today. My best would be that prices will have to decrease unless the Government and Private insurers step in, but on the other hand I see no reason that they wouldn't have a larger patient pool over time. So for now I'm going to use a number of $70B/year in 5 years.
As of today we have the big boys controlling the market, namely Lilly and Novo. Of course they're in this position by accident, they were working on diabetes and found weight loss was a side effect. Sounds like the Ivory Soap or Viagra story doesn't it.
This brings us to today. We have Viking and Altimmune working on Nash but end up with a Nash/Weight loss drug and numerous other company's dealing with the weight loss function. Mufasco, you mentioned Structure Thera but when they "forgot" to weigh 24 of their 40 patients on the high dose at their LAST weigh in I came away with the impression that this management group is lying or trying to outdo Revance's management team for the bottom of the barrel award.
Vin, So now I'll come back to your question of who I like in this area. First of all I've done very well by being a long term Lilly investor So in many ways I have benefitted by accident, I've also benefitted in Vikings success by my long term holdings of Ligand Pharma, Most of Vikings drugs (3) were provided by Ligand in exchange for 30% of Vikings stock, Ligand has been seller of the years when the stock has hit peek levels.
I have accumulated a decent position in Altimmune since 2019 at the $2 level and have bought since. Alt has hit mid 20$ since twice but I didn't sell and as of a week ago it was at $3. Today ALT ($370M MC) is flirting with $7. Likewise, VKTX ($1.7B MC) has had a good week. .
So if we use the initial sales targets (70B/yr) a 1.5% Market share would be blockbuster status and would probably create a company in the $4-5B MC area. I absolutely see certain benefits in both drugs where they could easily attain that.
I don't know Vikings goal, is it to bring this to market or Partner. Alt has stated they cannot bring it to market as they are talking to partners right now and expect to have someone carry the ph3 trials. Both these companies will probably run two 2500 patient trials at a guess of $30k-$50K per patient.
This is the first part of the obesity program with the next chapter's goal to prevent it. Of course these won't be simple 70 month trials.
I could goon forever but lets start with this,
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
