RE: Lehman to reorganize
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To reorganize, LBHI will need a fresh capital. The possibility of a new capital is from the creditors themselves. In fact about 90 percent of all creditors are the affiliates and they received about 90 percent of about 130 billion distributions. The ten percent are mostly small holders and they are all paid satisfied in full.
If LBHI will cease to exist, the unpaid debt (129B liabilities subject to compromise) will become a complete loss for the creditors.
Rather than just accepting the loss, The creditors may decide to capitalize LBHI and turn all unpaid debt to equity stocks.
Or, .. may discharge part of it and utilize the discharged part as NOL. (Losses).
Creditors who owns the new Capital will then become in control and the majority owner of the company.
The good part is that the existing equity holders are the owners of the existing 50B NOL. This existing 50B NOL therefore can be joined with creditors own NOL that can be utilized by LBHI as a going concern.
THE 50B NOL IS NON TRANSFERABLE. THE ORIGINAL OWNER (equity holders) ARE THEN SAFE AND CANNOT BE ELIMINATED. Commons may become heavily diluted by Creditors Capitalization but all preferred vehicles will stay on its Face values.
ONLY IF LEHMAN STAYS AS A GOING CONCERN
There are indeed some good signs of LBHI will continue to exist as a going concern.
Number one is they filed a Chapter eleven instead of chapter seven.
Secondly is they put all equity in escrow in order to avoid the change of ownership that will void NOLs value.