In 2017 the conservative AEI said Trump's immigration policies would likely bad for the economy ..
How Trump’s Immigration Order Could Destroy America’s Economy
By James Pethokoukis February 02, 2017
President Donald Trump’s immigration ideas may have already cost America trillions of dollars — with perhaps even more economic damage on the way.
See, America has a reputation. And that reputation is worth something. Quite a lot actually. A nation with a good reputation — such as one of tolerance and trustworthiness — has enhanced influence to achieve desired economic and geopolitical outcomes without force or cutting checks. A decent rep also makes a country a more attractive destination for capital, both financial and human.
So how do you think Brand America is doing these days?
It was actually pretty strong before the 2016 election, at least as imperfectly measured by Anholt-GfK Nation Brands Index. America’s global ranking jumped from seventh to first when Barack Obama was elected and has remained at or near the top since. The U.S. was first last year, too, but still saw a sizable drop in global perceptions. It’s hard to imagine that the Trump immigration and refugee travel ban — and the accompanying chaos — has done much to reverse that slide. If the Obama bump boosted the value of Brand America by some $2 trillion, how much has the Trump slump possibly hurt it?
But there’s an even bigger risk to U.S. prosperity: What if foreigners no longer see America as a welcoming place? Many potential immigrants to America just might take “no” for an answer and decide to go elsewhere or stay home. Already, Canadian immigration lawyers have reportedly been flooded with inquiries from U.S.-based engineers and computer scientists.
This should all be alarming for an economy that has benefited so much from attracting the world’s best and brightest. Roughly half of U.S.-based unicorns — technology startups worth at least $1 billion — were founded by immigrants, with India the top nation of origin. As venture capitalist Paul Graham tweets, “This is a good time to remember that without immigration the U.S. will only have 5 percent of the top people in each field.” And more to the point regarding the Trump ban, as The Atlantic notes, “Iranian-Americans founded or hold leadership positions at Twitter, Dropbox, Oracle, Expedia, eBay, and Tinder.”
The global race for talent is becoming ever more competitive, especially as Asian economies modernize and increase their demand for highly skilled labor. A 2014 University of Washington study, using LinkedIn data to monitor global worker migration, vividly shows how America is no longer the only game in town. While 27 percent of migrating professionals in its sample group chose the U.S. as a destination in 2000, just 13 percent did in 2012. The biggest drop was among those in the science, technology, engineering, and math fields — to 15 percent from 37 percent. In addition, the study found the share of graduates from the top 500 universities worldwide coming to America had also fallen by half.
[...]
Then again, perhaps Team Trump could care less. Senior Trump adviser Stephen Bannon has complained that American engineering schools are “are all full of people from South Asia and East Asia. .?.?. They’ve come in here to take these jobs.” He has also suggested it’s a problem when “two-thirds or three-quarters of the CEOs in Silicon Valley are from South Asia or from Asia.” P - No worries, then. The Trump administration looks to be well on its way to finding a solution to Bannon’s concerns.
Was the AEI right in suggesting the Trump crowd didn't really care about the economy back then? Was the AEI opinion his immigration policies would hurt the economy correct? In December, 2022 the Fed thought so. In fact Powell said Trump's anti-immigration trip was still bad for the economy:
Fed Chair Finds Trump-Era Immigration Policies Still Harm Economy Stuart Anderson Senior Contributor I write about globalization, business, technology and immigration. Dec 5, 2022, 08:43am EST Bad government policies are gifts that keep on giving. That is the message Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell delivered in a recent speech. Powell cited Trump-era restrictions on immigration that have led to a continued worker shortfall. Economists say recent events are further evidence that a lower supply of workers—which anti-immigration advocates and organizations believe is a good thing—is damaging and even destructive. Admitting fewer foreign-born workers can—and has—lead to shortages and labor shortfalls that harm the economy by limiting output and contributing to inflation. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2022/12/05/fed-chair-finds-trump-era-immigration-policies-still-harm-economy/?sh=320c9d545630
OK. So just imagine what Trump's 2024 immigration platform would do to the economy. Obviously his immigratio policies are designed basically for one reason. To attract votes from anti-immigration voters.
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