Replies to post #107712 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[SSKILLZ1]

FHN

I brought a small position at FHN At $10.64, and will buy more on weakness.

FHN had a buyout offer around $25, than the deal fell apart, now it is in the 10's, and I see tremendous value here.

1) FHN trades at discount to tangible book value $11.50). Big regional banks like this rarely trade at discount to tangible book, so that is a strong plus. Normally You get 1.5 to 2.0 Tangibe book on these banks. That would conservatively put fair value around $17 on that analysis.

2) FHN based on what I feel is getting near trough earnings, should still be be able to produce .35-.40 a quarter annualized. at the trough. So a PE about 7 times what I feel is trough earnings. I think a 12 PE at least is warranted on banks like these hence I feel FV Is around $17-18 right now as well if you value this bank on a EPS levels.

3) FHN Pays a healthy dividend of over 5.6%. So it is nice to get piad while you wait.

4) FHN Asset quality is solid, it loan and deposit growth are decent. And serves a good geographical region to serve in this country.

Conclusion: I think FHN is very attractive at current levels and I will add more on weakness. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

[SSKILLZ1]

BK

Sold my Position today of BK at a slight profit at $42.60 today. Overall I was slightly disappointed with the guidnace. 1) I don't feel they are gonna be as aggressive with the stock buyback, Hence instead of think they buyback 3 billion in stock over the next 12 months now, I'm thinking about 1.75-2.0 Billion. Which Makes the share count estimate higher than I thought next year.

Furthermore they have headwinds in numerous business that are stronger than I thought. In q4 costs will go up sequentially, and NII will drop a bit based on guidance hence I expect a decline sequentially as well. Hence Earnings probaly be about $1.15.

Furthermore I get the feeling that I was too optimistic about Fee revenue turning positive. I believe they will have very tough comps in 2024, and maybe $5 adjusted might prove to be slightly optimistic (I was thinking about $5.50 next year) Time will tell. Given the slower growth I don't expect much more than a 10 pe at best so fair value is in the high 40's at best, hence not too much upside, and as I said I don't think the comps are gonna look great in fy 24. Deposits also massively declined q/q, although I get the opinion they rebounding a bit this quarter. All in All It hink the stock has about 10% upside max hence I decided to bail here. Time will tell. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.