Of course he does.
Look how Ukraine is fighting Russia to a standstill. NATO, from the Baltics to Italy, would respond to an attack on Poland. First, Russian air defenses, just inside the Russian border, would be obliterated. Then, the Russian troops inside Ukraine would be cut off from retreat and systematically slaughtered from the air.
Putin's generals have that scenario gamed out, no less than NATO does, and have probably responded to numerous queries from Pooty; 'it we do this, what response can we expect?'
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