Replies to post #247127 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

Geometric mean fold rise (GMFR) at Day 28 was up to 4-fold in RSV-A and 3-fold in RSV-B across all treatment groups.

This is much lower than for PFE GSK MRNA and provably JNJ (since abandoned) and bavarian nordic too

This is a putative explanation offered in the PR:

High baseline nAbs to RSV-A and RSV-B were observed, likely reflecting an off-cycle RSV season following the COVID-19 pandemic.

and so:

In a pre-specified sub-analysis of data from subjects with the lowest tertile baseline nAbs titers, the corresponding GMFRs for RSV-A and RSV-B were up to 11-fold and 7-fold, respectively.

(i.e. closer to what the other players have shown)

Of course we don't know for RSV exactly how serology correlates to protection, andmaybe this is enough to translate into competitive efficacy, but this is a potential red flag IMO - but what do I know the stock is up 25%

[DewDiligence]

hMPV—>“…the most important virus you’ve never heard of”:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/29/health/human-metapneumovirus-explainer-wellness

[DewDiligence]

AZN acquires ICVX for $15/sh cash +CVR—a 43% premium to yesterday’s close (excluding the CVR):

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231212478740/en

ICVX’s lead program is a combination vaccine for RSV and hMPV that AZN says is ready to go into phase-3 trials. The nominal deal value (excluding the CVR) is $800M.