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rfj1862

03/21/23 12:35 PM

#246027 RE: DewDiligence #246025

ALT’s weight-loss efficacy data are no better than what patients are already achieving with approved GLP-1 drugs such as NVO’s Wegovy and LLY’s Mounjaro, and its safety/tolerability data may be worse. Hence, the Pemvidutide program looks like it won’t be competitive unless the phase-3 data are considerably better than the (interim) phase-2 data, which is pretty unlikely.



VKTX took a big sympathy hit because of this. Results from a Phase 1 study of their similar drug are expected in the next 2 weeks.

Obviously a silly overreaction since VKTX is in phase 1 on that program, hasn't released data, and the whole thing is really just a sideshow to the NASH phase 2b results coming in 1H 2023
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jbog

03/21/23 7:39 PM

#246037 RE: DewDiligence #246025

Dew

I still think Alt has a decent shot in the weight loss field. In hindsight maybe they'll have to try some dose titration similar to NOVO's 5 month period and Lilly's 6 month schedule (both 5 increasing dosages) to bring the side effect's within norm.

Pevidutide looks good in Fatty Liver so far.

I liked the risk reward at $10 so I like it more at $5. Weight loss drugs are going to be a massive market.

From Cathie Woods Today:

Cathie Wood highlighted one silver lining of the brutal run her exchange-traded funds suffered through last year: those billions of dollars in losses will help offset future tax bills on gains.

The founder and chief executive officer of ARK Investment Management told Bloomberg TV Tuesday that she has over $2 billion in losses from selling stocks during the market rout. By selling stocks at a loss, those losses can now lower, and potentially offset the tax bill Wood’s funds could receive on future capital gains.

LOLOL
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DewDiligence

06/24/23 2:44 PM

#247692 RE: DewDiligence #246025

B-I/ZEAL weight-loss drug—>tox similar_to ALT’s drug_from_same class:

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/events/conferences/ada-2023-toxicity-undermines-boehringer-and-zealands-incretin

Data presented late yesterday appears to suggest once again that the only thing glucagon agonism adds to GLP-1 agonism is toxicity. The side effects of survodutide, the GLP-1/glucagon co-agonist being developed by Boehringer Ingelheim and Zealand Pharma, prompted high levels of discontinuation in a mid-stage obesity trial.

…It is the adverse event rates, and particularly AE-related discontinuations, that stand out. Nearly a quarter of patients on the highest dose of survodutide backed out of the trial citing side effects. This has strong echoes of the dropouts seen with Altimmune’s pemvidutide in its obesity study (#msg-171498058)…

…Boehringer and Zealand had hoped survodutide would escape this level of toxicity since it has eightfold greater affinity for the GLP-1 receptor than the glucagon receptor. [ALT’s ] pemvidutide is equimolar.

The results seen in obesity with survodutide and pemvidutide suggest that GLP-1/glucagon agonists are only roughly as effective as Wegovy...but much less safe.

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DewDiligence

11/30/23 6:12 PM

#249864 RE: DewDiligence #246025

ALT—(+30%/AH)—reports (final) phase-2 weight-loss data:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/11/30/2788970/0/en/Altimmune-Announces-Positive-Topline-Results-from-MOMENTUM-48-Week-Phase-2-Obesity-Trial-of-Pemvidutide.html

The trial enrolled 391 subjects with obesity or overweight with at least one co-morbidity and without diabetes. Subjects were randomized 1:1:1:1 to 1.2 mg, 1.8 mg, 2.4 mg pemvidutide or placebo administered weekly for 48 weeks in conjunction with diet and exercise. The 1.2 mg and 1.8 mg doses were administered without dose titration, while a short 4-week titration period was employed for the 2.4 mg dose. At baseline, subjects had a mean age of approximately 50 years, mean body mass index (BMI) of approximately 37 kg/m2 and mean body weight of approximately 104 kg [230 lbs]. Approximately 75% of subjects were female.

At Week 48, subjects…achieved mean weight losses of 10.3%, 11.2%, 15.6% and 2.2% at the 1.2 mg, 1.8 mg, and 2.4 mg doses and placebo, respectively, with a near-linear trajectory of continued weight loss observed on the 2.4 mg dose at the end of treatment. Over 50% of subjects achieved at least 15% weight loss and over 30% of subjects achieved at least 20% weight loss on the 2.4 mg dose.

As in prior clinical trials, pemvidutide resulted in robust reductions in serum lipids and improvements in blood pressure without imbalances in cardiac events, arrhythmias or clinically meaningful increases in heart rate. Glucose homeostasis was maintained, with no significant changes in fasting glucose or HbA1c.

…74.1% of pemvidutide subjects [completed] the trial compared to 61.9% of placebo subjects. Nausea and vomiting comprised the majority of adverse events (AEs) and were predominantly mild to moderate in severity.

The dropout rate (26%) is still pretty high, but the 48-week data from this trial are clearly better than the 24-week (interim) data reported in Mar 2023 (#msg-171498058) that caused a steep selloff. Even after today’s AH bump, the stock is down more than 60% from its level prior to releasing the 24-week data.

CC tomorrow (Thursday) at 8:30am ET.