Replies to post #245388 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

There is no question the balance sheet has gotten a huge shot in the arm (overused pun by now) from Covid and lesser so from the HLN spin-off. To think the market cap is close to what it was prior to the pandemic (amd the EV a lot lower) makes no sense. I also think they are not done making money on Covid. I suspect some analysts are jaded by prior examples like GILD that was sitting on a mountain of cash from hepatitis and we know how that went but of course no two examples are the same.
I don’t follow PFE closely so can’t weigh in on pipeline.

[dewophile]

AZN earnings - stock is up 5%

https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/dam/az/PDF/2022/fy/Full-year-and-Q4-2022-results-announcement.pdf

AZN predicted sales would reach 45B by 2023 when they rejected PFE's bid in 2013. They pretty much hit that goal one year early. Hindsight is 20/20, and I am not sure the buyout would have gone through anyway, but this was one that got away. PFE undervalued AZN's oncology pipeline at the time

[dewophile]

PFE

Pfizer shares are almost back to where they stood prior to the pandemic’s start in 2019

PFE is now below it’s pre-pandemic level and down over 26 percent YTD. I don’t get it. Declining Covid sales and the large patent cliff is not new. The only thing I can think of is lack of confidence in the pipeline and BD. It’s low enough (and safe enough) that I may take a small position. If you can think of a reason not to let me know!
Ps: I was waiting on the ENTA Covid data and RSV label (and flu coadmin data) next quarter but I may pull the trigger early

[DewDiligence]

PFE’s new headquarters at NYC’s Hudson Yards has ample amenities to attract (and retain) top talent:

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-moves-west-side-settling-down-swanky-new-digs-hudson-yards-spiral-skyscraper

[DewDiligence]

PFE will_start monetizing ~$12.5B HLN stake in_the_next_few_months, according to CFO:

https://www.ft.com/content/ec441144-52ae-4fa2-8a04-4238db0ee504

Monetizing its HLN stake is consistent with what PFE said on the 1Q23 CC about being nearly done with large M&A transactions and re-focusing on returning cash to shareholders (#msg-171820737).

p.s. PFE’s 32% stake in HLN has increased in market value since HLN's IPO. (In #msg-171147993, I posited a value of ~$10B.)