Bar, >> How many times have you gotten it right? <<
Actually, surprisingly often over the last 3 years or so. The Spring 2020 Covid crash was easy to see coming, as was this year's bear market, and I nailed the timing pretty well, and also got the re-entry strategy right, albeit not perfect.
But I realize this good track record isn't likely to be repeated. Trying to figure out when to re-enter now is much less clear since there is no predictable 'Fed to the rescue' bailout arriving. Also the high inflation aspect is a new phenomenon, along with all the worsening geopolitical landmines out there, plus the potential for another Covid variant emerging out of China to blow up the already crippled world economy. So I'm tempted to just sit it out in cash/T-Bills, even at the risk of missing out on gains.
But you are right that historically the best long term strategy has been to just stay long with high quality large caps and the S+P 500, and ride things out, even though that requires a strong stomach. I'm still trying to figure out a workable 'low angst' strategy I can live with, based on a fairly low stock allocation, 10-25% range, but still a work in progress. I actually lowered the stock allocation (buy/hold) all the way to 10%, and will try to maintain it there, but on the other hand I'm not going to sit and watch money evaporate. Getting up in years, I'd rather not have new gains than lose capital. T-Bills are 4.6%, and some money markets pay 4.2%, so not too shabby, and this also provides plenty of dry powder to pick up bargains later.
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