The scenario has not changed, and I do not have enough data to determine right now if the retrenchment will be contained by 1865 rather than 1842, I need to see first how 1923/30 is handled. The new marginal new high today is more than I expected for this week (it was Jim's map which suggested that the end of the week bounce would actually get us higher than Monday's high), but nothing in today's advance suggest that this will continue much farther. By the way "will be contained" means not a high probability right now that the containing level will be breached.
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