Thing is when covid ran in 2021 into the next year, big oil cut their production more than 3 barrels a day. So did opec. And the price of gas stayed below 3.00. World production has been purposely held down by US and opec, isn't even back up to what it was before covid just to get their profits back up fast, they have no desire to raise production and lose their profit margins as they don't give a rats ass about end users and our hardships.
So you have oil 'experts' and oil exec's threatening high gas prices to condition the public.
Yet troll conservatives here blame all inflation on Biden. Political disingenuity of the mist miserable kind. Anyway:
OPEC+ Decision Won't Keep Oil Prices High
Oct. 09, 2022 11:05 AM
Nathan Aisenstadt 2.06K Followers
Summary
* The reduction of production quotas [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Production_quota] by OPEC+ members by 2 million barrels per day will not lead to an increase in oil prices in the long term.
* Fears of an impending recession in Europe and an economic slowdown in China are among the main reasons for the fall in the price of oil in 2023.
* The US and European Union are negotiating with Iran and Venezuela to lift sanctions to flood the market with oil.
[...]
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, total global oil production was 98.83 million barrels of oil per day for the 2nd quarter of 2022, and its reduction of 2 million barrels per day is quite significant. At first glance, such changes should have led to a sharp rise in oil prices by about 15-20%, as it happened before. However, history rarely repeats itself, and Brent and WTI futures (CL1:COM) edged up less than 5%.
IMAGE Reasons for the market's sluggish reaction to the OPEC+ decision
In terms of technical analysis, the OPEC decision only led to a slight correction in the price of a barrel of Brent crude (CO1:COM), which continues to remain within the downtrend that began in mid-June 2022. The sluggish reaction of the market is directly related to the structure of the OPEC organization and the current situation in world markets.
IMAGE N_Aisenstadt — TradingView
First, OPEC's decision to cut production quotas is not the same as the decision to cut oil production. Paying attention to the new terms of the deal, production quotas will be higher than the actual oil production, which occurred between April and June 2022. For example, Saudi Arabia, which is the third largest oil-producing country, has 178,000 barrels per day of undrawn quota left even after the reduction.
IMAGE Source: Author's elaboration, based on OPEC and EIA
At the same time, Russia, which continues to lose its share in the European oil market due to aggressive actions against Ukraine, has reached the ceiling in oil production after quotas and cannot produce more than it is currently producing.
IMAGE Source: Author's elaboration, based on EIA
The second reason for the sluggish reaction of the market to the news about the reduction of production quotas is the world's large strategic oil reserves, which can be used to fill the deficit that is on the market today. This policy has been adopted by the Biden administration over the past few months, using the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to drive down domestic fuel prices.
OPEC+ actual oil production fall to be lower than quota cuts: Fitch
Reaching consensus among members difficult due to demand uncertainties, recession in large developed markets, says ratings agency
Övünç Kutlu | 10.10.2022
ANKARA
The decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, known as OPEC+, to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) starting in November will have a muted impact on global oil market since the actual output cuts will be smaller, Fitch Ratings said Monday.
"The recent increases in global oil inventories suggest that the market is in a production surplus," the global rating agency said in a report.
"We expect OPEC+ to target a broad balance in the oil market by changing production quotas and available crude supplies, although it may become increasingly difficult to achieve a consensus among the members due to demand uncertainties and the recession in large developed markets," it added.
Fitch said Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will have to make the largest actual cuts in oil production, while many other OPEC countries will have some room under their quotas to increase production.
While Kuwait and Iraq are required to cut oil production, relative to their August output level, Nigeria, Angola, and Azerbaijan have some room to increase their crude production, according to the report.
"A recessionary economic outlook will lead to lower oil demand, although demand has recently been boosted by switches from gas to oil in energy generation, driven by soaring natural gas prices, particularly in Europe and the Middle East," the report said.
The agency noted that it expects price volatility to remain high in the global oil market in the short term due to geopolitical factors that have the potential to significantly shift supply patterns and cause large price fluctuations.
Some of these major geopolitical factors are additional Western sanctions that could lead to further reduction in Russian oil exports, and an agreement on the Iran nuclear deal that could see oil production rising in the country, according to Fitch.
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