Price only matters in relation to Total's valuation and timing to execute on that valuation.
When is that timing?
Of course, if I were Erhc I wouldn't want to execute the price until I've maximized Total's valuation.
When does that maximization occur? Of course after Shell's drilling. But how long after? I dunno. No one does. But EVERYONE is willing to wait and no one cares about PRICE. Only Total's price as represented by its valuation is what matters.
So for clarity I will repeat that the veracity and accuracy of this latest kaboom story of over $1/share in a few short weeks (more likely months) will be on full display after block 6 drilling.
You seem to be saying that if in a few short weeks we don't get a buy out that you'll have your "gotcha" moment and everyone will sell making the short sellers really happy. You'll be able to point to an ever stagnant price and somehow that will vindicate your position ...
But what you don't seem to understand is NO ONE CARES about your gotcha moment, if it even happens.
Neither your gotcha moment nor my alleged excuses changes the fact that investors will wait until the valuation is realized by Total's price.