Why China’s New Data Security Law Is a Warning for the Future of Data Governance
"If Russia Invades Ukraine, Sanction China"
Stricter data privacy guidelines present new challenges for businesses operating in the world’s second largest economy.
By Christian Perez, a senior quantitative and policy analyst at FP Analytics, Foreign Policy’s independent research and analysis division. His work focuses on trade and investment, emerging technologies, sustainability, and impact analysis.
Pedestrians walk past a stock market display board showing the Chinese state-owned commercial banking company Bank of China in Hong Kong on Sept. 24, 2020." BUDRUL CHUKRUT/LIGHTROCKET VIA GETTY IMAGES
China’s two newest data security laws—the “Data Security Law” (DSL) and the “Personal Information Protection Law” (PIPL)—came into effect at the end of 2021. Building on the 2017 Cybersecurity Law, they include new guidelines for handling data, updated enforcement measures, and additional restrictions on the transfer of data outside of China. Notably, the DSL broadly expands the extraterritorial reach of China’s existing data rules, creating a critical new set of guidelines for companies doing business with Chinese citizens—both within and outside the country’s borders—to navigate.
These new restrictions paint a complicated picture for the future of data governance, continuing a trend toward more complex regulatory regimes, competing legal frameworks, and increased restrictions on international data flows. Governments continual adoption of similar measures will increasingly disrupt an era of relatively restriction-free cross-border data flows that has been critical to the growth and expansion of many international businesses. The key points and implications from each law are broken down below.
The Data Security Law Passed on June 10, 2021, in effect since September 1, 2021
What’s New: New data classification categories aimed at protecting national security are loosely defined, leaving interpretation up to Chinese authorities.
The DSL references two main categories of sensitive data—national core data and important data—with new guidelines for governing each.
* “National core data” is defined as data concerning national security, economic interests, Chinese citizens’ welfare, or the public interest, and is categorized as the most sensitive data type.
* “Important data” is categorized as the second most sensitive data type but is not clearly defined in the text. Instead, regulatory authorities at the local level are expected to issue additional guidelines as to what constitutes important data for their jurisdiction, but the timeline for issuing the guidelines has not yet been determined.
The new data categorization system poses two primary issues for companies operating in China. The first is the lack of definitional clarity. There are fines of up to RMB 10 million (~$1.56 million) per infraction for mishandling national core data, but compliance will be difficult given the vague definition. The same holds true for important data, where violations can include fines of up to RMB 5 million (~$780,000), but definitions are even less clearly defined. Until concrete examples of the law being applied are available, or clarifying definitions are issued, businesses will be left with unclear information to make strategic adjustments in the interim. Second, allowing local regulatory bodies to determine what constitutes important data creates another layer of compliance requirements. It will also make operating across jurisdictions more complex if different definitions are adopted. Both international and domestic companies will now be forced to navigate existing national guidelines, alongside a yet-to-be-determined number of region- and industry-specific guidelines.
Old idea, new reach: The Data Security Law builds on the provisions of the Cybersecurity Law and expands China’s extraterritorial reach over new categories of data.
The DSL expands on previous data localization and data transfer rules and imposes harsher penalties for violations. Companies that handle these types of data (for example, those operating in fields related to physical or digital infrastructure or natural resource extraction) are responsible for ensuring that all data generated within China is stored within the country. A security assessment in accordance with the Cyberspace Administration of China’s guidelines is required before any China-originated data is transferred abroad.
Critically, all data handlers are prohibited from providing any data stored in China to foreign government agencies without approval from Chinese government authorities, regardless of the data’s sensitivity level and where the data was originally collected. This guideline is widely viewed as a direct counter-measure to the U.S.’s 2018 Clarifying Lawful Overseas Use of Data Act (the “CLOUD Act”). Under the CLOUD Act, U.S. law enforcement agencies are given the legal right to demand access to electronic data, no matter which country the data is stored in. China’s new legal requirements create the potential for international companies to be caught between conflicting demands from U.S. and Chinese authorities when it comes to access to sensitive data.
How it’s enforced: Fines and legal penalties for breaching the laws are significant, but initially enforceability is likely to be inconsistent.
Companies that provide national core data to foreign officials without approval from Chinese authorities are subject to fines as well as the potential forced shutdown of their businesses and potential criminal charges. For violations regarding important data, additional penalties may be added directly to the individuals involved as determined on a case-by-case basis by Chinese authorities. There are also penalties for companies that fail to cooperate with data requests from Chinese authorities on law enforcement or national security matters, but the extent of these penalties is not clearly defined. Instead, parties found to be in violation will be prosecuted in Chinese courts.
The Personal Information Protection Law Passed on August 20, 2021, in effect since November 1, 2021
What it’s based on: Modeled after the EU’s General Data Protection Law (GDPR), the Personal Information Protection Law is China’s first comprehensive data protection law covering personal data.
The PIPL covers all data activities related to the personal information of Chinese citizens, whether it is originally collected within China or abroad. The law governs data collection from both public and private companies and includes provisions mandating that Chinese government agencies notify and obtain consent from individuals. However, the provisions related to Chinese government data collection do not apply in situations where it is necessary for “acting in the public interest.” In practice, this means that the law is unlikely to end the Chinese government’s extensive data collection practices ranging from collecting biometric data from facial recognition software to the myriad data points that make up citizens’ social credit scores.
Similar to the GDPR, the PIPL includes provisions granting the right to limit or refuse processing of personal information, the right to refuse automated decisions regarding personal data, and the requirement to obtain explicit consent before transferring personal data to third parties. It also includes more severe penalties for violation than the GDPR. Companies found in violation of the law face fines up to RMB 50 million (~$7.8 million) or 5 percent of revenue and risk suspension of their operations. Additionally, the legal ramifications may be reflected in companies social credit scores, which impacts their ability to access financing. Individuals can also be held liable for violations, with monetary fines up to RMB 1 million (~$157,000) as well as additional discipline determined by legal authorities.
Why it’s concerning: New deletion requirements on personal data and transparency rules could disrupt business models that rely on collecting and selling consumer data.
Under the PIPL, data handlers are now required to delete personal data after the stated purpose for collection has been completed. How this will be determined is left ambiguous, making it unclear whether this represents a legitimate data privacy benefit for individuals. Depending on when data needs to be deleted, and the stringency with which this provision is enforced, it could disrupt data economy companies that rely on storing, analyzing, and selling user data. Additional restrictions for safeguarding individuals’ data are determined based on the company’s categorization—whether it is a “major internet service platform,” has a “large number” of users, or engages in “complex business activities.” With these categories not clearly defined in the text, like many parts of the PIPL and DSL, they are likely to be interpreted at the discretion of Chinese authorities.
What this means: Transferring personal data outside of China is more difficult under the PIPL, and its adoption encourages other countries to enact similar personal data protection measures.
Transferring personal data within China or overseas now requires the data subjects’ informed consent. This is similar to a provision in the GDPR, which forced many businesses to add consent forms and update their data collection policies. For overseas transfer, companies are responsible for ensuring that the country that data is being sent to has data protection requirements at least as stringent as the PIPL. This requirement has been included in a variety of personal data protection laws globally, including in the GDPR, and EU authorities have enforced significant fines on companies that violate this provision. As more countries adopt similar provisions in their data protection laws, the pressure to pass comprehensive data protection laws globally mounts. The PIPL includes an additional restriction on companies that are deemed to be in possession of a “large volume” of personal data. For those companies, a mandatory security review by the Cyberspace Administration of China must be completed before transferring any data overseas.
The Big Picture and Implications for Businesses
The addition of new data classifications, legal jurisdictions, and data storage requirements imposes another layer of regulatory complexity for businesses operating in China.
China’s new data security laws increase the complexity of the data governance regulatory landscape. The size and significance of China’s economy, as well as the addition of both national- and regional-level guidelines, will potentially require major adjustments for data economy companies doing business in China.
China now joins the EU as a major economy with a comprehensive data governance framework, with India likely to be the next major economy to follow suit—its comprehensive Data Protection Bill is expected to be passed in the first half of 2022. As more countries pass data protection laws, effectively navigating the web of regulations will become a prerequisite for operating in the global digital economy.
Does an alliance between the world’s two most powerful autocracies signal the start of a second cold war, or were Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin just posturing on the sidelines of the Olympics?
Michael Smith North Asia correspondent Feb 11, 2022 – 2.01pm
Tokyo | As thousands of performers warmed up in Beijing’s “Bird’s Nest” stadium for the Winter Olympics opening ceremony last week, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin were putting on a show of their own.
Just 20 minutes’ drive away in the Chinese capital’s Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, the world’s two most powerful autocrats, wearing matching ties, posed for photographs in front of a row of Chinese and Russian flags.
Xi described Putin has his “best friend” and the two presidents declared “there are no forbidden areas of co-operation”. They later released a 5000-word communiqué .. http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770 .. which signalled a new era of strategic co-operation between China and Russia at a time when both powers have respective territorial claims over Ukraine and Taiwan.
IMAGE Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo before their talks in Beijing on February 4. AP
Like US President Joe Biden, who was absent from a Games boycotted by many Western leaders, Xi and Putin made it clear there was no room for America in their vision for the new world order.
A week later in Melbourne on Friday, a rival bloc of democratic heavyweights gathered for a meeting of their own. Ukraine, and China’s increasingly aggressive incursions in the East and South China seas topped the agenda of the latest gathering of foreign ministers of the United States, Australia, Japan and India under the banner of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue .. https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/region-faces-severe-security-environment-as-quad-ministers-gather-20220210-p59vb3 .
Lacking substance
Within a week, while the world was distracted by the fanfare of the Winter Olympics and managing the latest wave of COVID-19 outbreaks, there has been a seismic shift in geopolitics.
The more hawkish commentators are comparing the Xi-Putin meeting to the early days of Japan and Germany’s alliance in World War II or talking about the start of a new cold war. The “nightmare scenario” is a simultaneous invasion of Ukraine by Russia and of Taiwan by China.
However, that remains highly unlikely. Governments in Canberra, Washington and elsewhere are worried about the prospect of tighter Russia-China relations, but they also warn against getting caught up in the hype surrounding the Xi-Putin love fest, which was heavy on rhetoric but, when you drill down into the joint statement, lacks substance.
While the two leaders have a shared interest in undermining the role of the United States and NATO as the centres of global power, Xi does not want a full-scale war in a politically delicate year when he will prioritise economic stability as he seeks a third term as President. It is also not in China’s economic interests to get its European trading partners offside.
“I think actual China military action against Taiwan using Russian action against Ukraine as cover is very unlikely. The two issues are very different and the trust between Beijing and Moscow would need to be much greater than it is for that level of co-ordination,” Mark Harrison, a senior lecturer in Chinese studies at the University of Tasmania, tells AFR Weekend.
“In addition, as the Russian troop build-up shows, any Chinese military action would be telegraphed well in advance by a scale of deployment that would be impossible to hide.”
Can the US handle both?
As China continues to ramp up air incursions near Taiwanese territory, the threat of war over the self-governed island that Beijing considers its own dominates security concerns in the region. Japanese officials said this week it would be on top of the agenda of the Quad meeting in Melbourne, along with North Korea’s repeated missile launches. Australia is heavily invested if there is a conflict over Taiwan .. https://www.afr.com/world/asia/the-gloves-are-off-when-it-comes-to-taiwan-20210415-p57jjw . Defence Minister Peter Dutton repeated warnings this week that the West must stand up to China and its expansion in the South China Sea.
The rhetoric from the Biden administration is that it can handle both Russia and China.
“There are a few other things going on in the world right now, some of you may have noticed. We have a bit of a challenge with Ukraine .. https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p59umh .. and Russian aggression. We’re working 24/7 on that,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Australia this week.
“But we know, the President knows better than anyone else, that so much of this century is going to be shaped by what happens here in the Indo-Pacific region.”
Blinken is right. However, it is still unclear which global power will emerge from the 21st century as the dominant force in the region. China does not have a lot of friends, but it has some powerful allies, and is a military and economic power to be reckoned with. While Xi’s meeting with Putin was the pinnacle of his diplomatic posturing on the sidelines of the Olympics .. https://www.afr.com/world/asia/xi-making-deals-on-the-sidelines-of-the-winter-olympics-20220207-p59uec , the Chinese leader was this week also courting countries such as Iran, Argentina and Papua New Guinea.
In exchange for trade deals and economic investment, such countries are brought on board to back China’s efforts to discredit the United States and its other Western critics, including Australia. “The reckless war-mongering posturing of Washington aimed at provoking Russia and China only serves to expose its hegemonic and bullying practices,” the China Daily, a Communist Party mouthpiece, said in an editorial this week.
Richard Maude, a former diplomat and executive director for policy at the Asia Society Australia, says Xi and Putin’s vision for global order is an attempt to redefine both democracy and human rights in a way that legitimises their authoritarian systems.
“This is not a re-run of the Cold War, but the battle lines have been drawn for some time now and are stark. These are not just over securing economic, military and technological advantage, but about the values, norms, rules and standards that should shape the future,” he wrote in The Australian Financial Review .. https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-russia-accuse-aukus-pact-of-increasing-arms-race-risk-20220205-p59u3g .. this week.
While China has not specifically stated it would directly support a Russian invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that distracts the United States and NATO in Europe works in Beijing’s favour. The same applies elsewhere in the world. Chinese diplomats this week expressed support for Argentina’s sovereignty claims over the Falkland Islands.
It is this shared interest in taking on the West and shifting the balance of global power that has united the leaders of China and Russia to a level not seen since the Sino-Soviet split in 1960. They have made their move at a time when democracies are losing their influence after two years of a pandemic and regime changes in Myanmar and Afghanistan.
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s annual Democracy Index released this week .. https://bit.ly/3sWvgU3 .. showed the proportion of the world’s population living in a democracy fell to less than 50 per cent as the number of countries classified as an “authoritarian regime” increased in 2021.
Pancake diplomacy
Ideologically, China and Russia remain very different, although it is believed there is mutual respect between Xi and Putin. The two nations have a volatile history, marked by border skirmishes and deep mistrust, but there have been growing signs since 2018 –when Xi and Putin donned kitchen aprons to cook traditional Russian pancakes, known as blinis, together .. https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/from-russia-with-love-chinas-pancake-diplomacy-signals-shift-in-world-order-20180913-h15bno – that the two sides would strengthen co-operation.
Previously, China has shown zero interest in supporting Russia’s territorial disputes in Europe. It did not back its 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula or the invasion of Georgia, which coincided with the start of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
Instead of using its influence and stated desire to be a global leader to deter Putin from invading the Ukraine, China has done the opposite.
“The move to openly support Russia in its current confrontation with Europe puts at risk China’s relations with the EU and the European states, indicating that Xi believes China now possesses sufficient economic and diplomatic leverage to get away with it,” Nathan Levine, China adviser at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington, wrote this week .. https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/nathan-levine .
However, he and other observers noted that while China was creating the impression it supported Russia, it has not said so definitively. The 5000-word communiqué does not mention Ukraine, and an edited version of the statement released by China’s Foreign Ministry cut out the comments about NATO.
“The area of connection is tactical. Moscow aims to win the crisis, and Beijing is no doubt watching Moscow’s tactics closely and learning lessons. Beijing will be looking to see if Moscow can extract political concessions from Ukraine, NATO and the EU by leveraging military brinkmanship and economic pressure,” Harrison says.
“Similarly, Beijing will be observing how effectively Moscow is able to divide the EU and the US, and exploit differences of opinion and policy to weaken Ukraine’s international support and make it more likely to acquiesce.
“It will apply those lessons to Taiwan and determine how it can develop its own military brinkmanship with the US and exploit international divisions on Taiwan to weaken any international response. These lessons are not just for Beijing, but for the international community.”
The Winter Olympics, an event that is supposed to symbolise international peace, will wrap up next week, but the long-term consequences of the meetings held on the sidelines may reverberate for years to come.
* President Vladimir Putin ordered his defence ministry to despatch Russian troops to ‘maintain peace’ in eastern Ukraine’s two breakaway regions.
* Earlier, Putin signed a decree recognising two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities.
* Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of wrecking peace talks and ruled out making any territorial concessions.
* Putin gave far-reaching speech blaming NATO for the current crisis and calling the US-led alliance an existential threat to Russia.
* The US, UK, and EU promised fresh sanctions aimed at the separatist areas.
Moscow: An urgent late-night UN Security Council meeting convened at the request of Ukraine has been told that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to send peacekeeping forces to eastern Ukraine is nonsense.
“Russia’s clear attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is unprovoked,” US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, told the session.
She said the deployment of Russian troops into the two rebel-held regions under the pretext of peace was: “Nonsense. We know what they really are.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier accused Russia of wrecking peace efforts and ruled out making any territorial concessions in an address to the nation on Tuesday.
IMAGE -‘We are not afraid. We won’t cede anything.’ Ukrainian President Zelensky.
Zelensky spoke after Russia’s decision to formally recognise the two Moscow-backed regions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, the breakaway “republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk, as independent and send troops to the region, accelerating a crisis that the West fears could unleash a major war.
After chairing a security council meeting, Zelensky accused Russia of violating Ukraine sovereign territory and said it could mean Moscow pulling the plug on the peace talks aimed at ending the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Zelensky said he wanted to solve the crisis through diplomacy but that his country was ready to dig in for the long haul.
“We are committed to the peaceful and diplomatic path, we will follow it and only it,” Zelensky said. “But we are on our own land, we are not afraid of anything and anybody, we owe nothing to no one, and we will give nothing to no one.” Advertisement
“We won’t cede anything,” said a defiant Zelensky.
“It’s not Feb 2014, but Feb 2022,” he said, in a likely reference to Ukraine’s loss of Crimea to the Russians.
“It’s important right now to see who our true friends are,” Zelensky said. He added that Ukraine was expecting “clear and effective” steps from its allies to act against Russia and called for an emergency summit with the leaders of Russia, Germany and France.
Tanks roll
Earlier on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his Defence Ministry to dispatch troops to “maintain peace” in Ukraine east, in a significant escalation of the Kremlin-driven crisis.
A Reuters witness saw columns of military vehicles including tanks on the outskirts of Donetsk, the capital of one of two breakaway regions. There were about five tanks in a column on the edge of the city and two more in another part of town.
IMAGE - Russian President Vladimir Putin announcing plans to sign a decree on eastern Ukraine regions.
No insignia were visible, but the appearance of the tanks came hours after Putin signed friendship treaties with the two separatist regions and ordered Russian troops to deploy on what Moscow called a peacekeeping operation.
World reacts
Leaders lined up to denounce Putin’s words and actions. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Russia should “unconditionally withdraw .. https://www.smh.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p59ykf ” from Ukrainian territory and cease to threaten its neighbours.
“It is important that like-minded countries who denounce this sort of behaviour...stick together,” he said.
US President Joe Biden signed an executive order to prohibit trade and investment between US individuals and the two Ukrainian breakaway regions recognised as independent by Russia on Monday, the White House said.
Included is the prohibition of “new investment” by an American, wherever located, and the “importation into the United States, directly or indirectly, of any goods, services, or technology from the covered regions”.
One administration official told reporters that additional measures would be announced on Wednesday, but those were separate from a wider set of sanctions that Washington has promised to implement with its allies if Russia invades Ukraine.
“This isn’t a further invasion since it’s territory that they’ve already occupied,” that official said.
Bloomberg has reported the US is moving its Ukraine embassy staff out of the country and into Poland for security reasons - they were moved out of Kyiv to Lviv last week .. https://www.smh.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p59wgv . They are expected to return tomorrow if the Russian invasion doesn’t occur.
Sanctions
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Zelensky a Russian invasion was possible within hours or days and Britain would explore sending further defensive support to Ukraine and announce sanctions on Russia.
“Outlining his grave concern at recent developments in the region, the Prime Minister told President Zelensky that he believed an invasion was a real possibility in the coming hours and days,” Johnson’s office said.
He denounced Putin’s move to recognise the regions as independent as a “breach of international law”.
“It’s a ... flagrant violation of the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine,” Johnson said.
British Foreign Minister Liz Truss said she had agreed with European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell that Britain and the EU would coordinate to deliver swift sanctions against Russia.
“We agreed [Britain] and [the EU] will coordinate to deliver swift sanctions against Putin’s regime and stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine,” Truss said on Twitter following a call with Borrell.
Putin speech
Earlier on Tuesday AEDT, Putin signed a decree recognising the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities, upping the ante in a crisis the West fears could unleash a war.
In a lengthy televised address, Putin, looking visibly angry, described Ukraine as an integral part of Russia.
Sweeping through more than a century of history, he painted today’s Ukraine as a modern construct that is inextricably linked to Russia. He charged that Ukraine had inherited Russia’s historic lands and after the Soviet collapse was used by the West to contain Russia.
He brushed off Western warnings that such a step would be illegal and would kill off peace negotiations and that he was confident the Russian people would support his decision.
Putin sought to justify his decision in the pre-recorded speech by blaming NATO for the crisis and calling the US-led alliance an existential threat to his country.
United Nations
The United Nations Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting Monday night (Tuesday afternoon AEDT) at Ukraine’s request over the Russian move and its order to deploy Russian troops to the two regions — moves that could presage war.
American ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in a statement that “every UN member state has a stake in what comes next.”
IMAGE - People from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the territory controlled by pro-Russia separatist governments in eastern Ukraine, get on a train to be taken to temporary residences in other regions of Russia.Credit:AP
Pretext to invade
Separately, Moscow said Ukrainian military saboteurs had tried to enter Russian territory in armed vehicles leading to five deaths, an accusation dismissed as “fake news” by Kyiv.
Both developments fit a pattern repeatedly predicted by Western governments, who accuse Russia of preparing to use a false flag, or fabricate a pretext to invade Ukraine, by blaming Kyiv for attacks and relying on pleas for help from separatist proxies.
Washington says Russia has now massed a force numbering 169,000-190,000 troops in the region, including pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, and could invade other parts of the country within days.
IMAGE - Ukrainian border guards stand at a checkpoint from territory controlled by Russia-backed separatists.
Ukrainian border guards stand at a checkpoint from territory controlled by Russia-backed separatists.Credit:AP
Recognition by Moscow of the rebel regions’ independence further narrows the diplomatic options to avoid war, since it is an explicit rejection of a seven-year-old ceasefire mediated by France and Germany, still touted as the framework for any future negotiations on the wider crisis.
Who's who in Ukraine crisis
Vladimir Putin Russian President In his nearly two decades as ruler, aspires to restore Russia’s lost greatness after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Volodymyr Zelensky Ukrainian President A comedian-turned-politician, pledges internal reforms, even as his country faces external threats from its neighbour.
Joe Biden US President Pushing a domestic agenda to rebuild the US, saw his hopes of a more cordial relationship with Moscow fade.
Antony Blinken US Secretary of State The US's top diplomat, is trying to hold the line on Russian aggression, while keeping dialogue open.
Sergei Lavrov Russian Foreign Minister Sometimes known as “Mr Nyet” for his obstinance in negotiations.
European financial markets tumbled at the signs of increased confrontation, after having briefly edged higher on the glimmer of hope that a summit might offer a path out of Europe’s biggest military crisis in decades. The price of oil - Russia’s main export - rose, while Russian shares and the rouble plunged.
Russia Is Reenacting Its Georgia Playbook in Ukraine
"If Russia Invades Ukraine, Sanction China"
False claims of military withdrawal followed by recognition of breakaway regions is a tried and tested Kremlin strategy.
By Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
Russian army trucks are pictured on a riverbank in Nar, near the border between Russia and Georgia, on Aug. 15, 2008. NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA/AFP via Getty Images February 22, 2022, 6:12 AM
Despite two months of diplomatic efforts and European leaders’ endless visits to Moscow, the Kremlin has shown no intention of engaging in meaningful discussions. By amassing around 190,000 troops .. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/18/russia-has-amassed-up-to-190000-troops-on-ukraine-borders-us-warns .. along Ukraine’s borders, Moscow is attempting to create a hostage situation in Ukraine so it can gain major concessions. Compared to the 2008 war with Georgia and 2014 annexation of Crimea, the West now seems to acknowledge the costs of appeasement and has avoided falling into the Russian trap so far. Still, the current force posture on the ground and recognition of the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories’ independence clearly indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aim to embark on another military adventure in Ukraine.
Russia’s behavior today bears a chilling resemblance to its approach to Georgia in 2008. Five days prior to launching its military operation, the Kremlin concluded the large-scale Kavkaz-2008 exercise and announced a pullback. The Georgian example clearly shows that Russian rhetoric cannot be trusted. - Putin’s decision to recognize the independence of Ukraine’s Russian- occupied territories effectively kills the Minsk agreement. - Apart from heavy military mobilization, the Russian side is increasingly seeking to construct a casus belli by spreading disinformation and accusing Ukraine of planning military provocations in the eastern Donbass region. Throughout eight years of ongoing war, the Ukrainian government has never attempted to escalate the situation and retake control of the occupied parts of the Donbass region. It is hardly believable that Kyiv would take such a risk at a time when Russia is launching its largest military mobilization in decades.
It has been a while since Russia stopped caring about abiding by international law. What Putin really cares about is Russia’s internal audience and how his actions will be portrayed at home. At a time when the Russian population does not seem too enthusiastic about the prospect of another war, the Russian calculus for waging war has to be justified by noble goals. Over the years, Russia has promoted its role as a humanitarian actor. Despite the authoritarian nature of Putin’s regime, having a decent excuse—that will easily be embellished by Russian propaganda—still matters.
Nothing discloses the Kremlin’s plans as clearly as the state-owned, pro-Kremlin media. Since tensions began to rise, the Kremlin has denied .. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/10/russia-tells-us-has-no-plans-to-invade-ukraine-wants-more-talks-a76004 .. any intentions of invading Ukraine. The Russian media has been preoccupied with portraying Western countries, particularly the United States and the United Kingdom, as paranoid warmongers willing to twist reality and portray Russia as an aggressor, whereas truthfully, it is Moscow that has been threatened by NATO enlargement.
Following the shelling .. https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-donbass-vrubivka-shelling/31708351.html .. of Ukraine’s Donbass region and the use of heavy weapons, Russian media immediately placed the blame on the Ukrainian military. In the meantime, Kremlin-backed separatists have used these provocations to evacuate civilians residing in the separatist-controlled areas to Russia. However, this time, technology betrayed Russia’s plans. Fabricated videos released by separatist forces announcing the immediate evacuation of local inhabitants have easily been detected as part of Russia’s false flag operation. Metadata embedded in the videos showed that files were recorded two days before Moscow even voiced allegations against Ukraine.
Just like in Georgia’s occupied territories, Russia has illegally distributed passports to the residents of occupied parts of eastern Ukraine. In 2008, prior to the eruption of hostilities, Russian forces started evacuating the civilian population of the Tskhinvali region (which Russia calls South Ossetia), followed by the Kremlin justifying its aggression by arguing it was protecting its citizens. It is highly likely that Moscow may follow its well-tested scenario until significant concessions are offered.
Simultaneously, Putin is creating several options for future maneuvering. The recent approval .. https://www.dw.com/en/russian-duma-asks-putin-to-recognize-ukrainian-regions-as-independent/a-60783596 .. of the draft resolution recognizing the independence of the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics by the State Duma, accepted by Putin this week, is hardly a coincidence. Vyacheslav Volodin, the Duma’s speaker, was fully in line with the well-orchestrated narrative and explained the decision by claiming Moscow needed to support Russian compatriots in the Donbass. - By violating international law once more through violence and preparing a pretext for an invasion, Moscow is signaling it has no intention to simply walk away with modest or no gains. - Putin’s decision to recognize the independence of Ukraine’s Russian-occupied territories effectively kills the Minsk agreement—a 2015 peace plan that aimed to stop fighting in Ukraine’s Donbass region—and lays the groundwork for a formal military presence in these territories. Yet, this is the initial part of his bigger plan to end Ukrainian sovereignty and provoke a regime change that would grant the Kremlin leverage to return Ukraine to Russia’s sphere of influence.
The Ukrainian government’s refusal to embark on a suicide mission by fulfilling Russia’s interpretation of the agreement—which would have granted the Donbass special status, hence a veto power to Russia over Ukraine’s foreign-policy decisions—is being used by the Kremlin as a justification for its claim that Russia has tried all diplomatic means. In his dark and extraordinary speech on Monday, prior to announcing the decision, Putin gave a revisionist history lesson claiming Ukraine was created by Russia.
By violating international law once more through violence and preparing a pretext for an invasion, Moscow is signaling it has no intention to simply walk away with modest or no gains.
In the meantime, the West has still not enacted heavy and comprehensive sanctions against Russia. By employing cyber and information warfare tools as well as orchestrating a number of provocations in the Donbass region, the Kremlin has been waging a war below the anticipated, powerful Western sanctions’ threshold. However, by recognizing the independence of Ukraine’s Russian-occupied territories and immediately sending the so-called peacekeepers into the area, Russia has crossed a red line.
The current scenario is a repetition of the Georgian playbook in many ways. Back then, the West failed to respond to the Russian threat; today, if the West is serious about imposing the toughest sanctions, it is time to act as Russia constructs a pretext for a full-scale invasion. Otherwise, it will soon be too late to deter Moscow.
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