Regarding your last paragraph about fed getting the rate right to walk the line: it is way too early to know or even think about that. Here’s why. After Great Recession, fed started raising rates winter 2015. When did it suddenly become “too much?” Winter of 2018. It took 3 YEARS to be “too much.” Previously, they started rate hiking in 2004. When was the next recession/stock bear? 2007, again 3 years later. What else can happen between now and 3 years from now? A heck of a lot. Now, you Could say this is more like 1999, when they started raising rates in June 1999. But the stock market still didn’t peak until a year later. Might the next year-two be rocky? Sure. I expect quite a few 10% swings up and down. But drawing any conclusions or making predictions like analysts will for the next year is mostly just internet filler.
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