These are the 2022 catalysts IMO:
Litigation:
1) Collins/Rop/Bhatti unconstitutional remedy cases: One of these courts rule that the proper remedy entitled to shareholders due to Trump not being able to fire Watt is to put shareholders back into a position they would have been in if Trump had a full 4 years to complete his objective of recap and release. Should have our first decision as soon as Q1 hopefully in Collins (oral arguments Jan 19).
2) Lambert breach of contracts case: Judge Lambert affirms his ruling that shareholders contractual rights were violated and we are entitled to monetary compensation + penalty interest. Trial set for July 2022 so expect a decision by the end of the year.
3) Court of federal claims Takings case: Judges rule that the GSEs/shareholders are owed just compensation under the fifth amendment for taking private property for public use without just compensation. Appeal decision should hit any day now as oral arguments were back in August, if shareholders survive this decision expect trial later in the year.
Administratively:
1) Biden Admin looking for win? The Biden admin failed to get BBB passed which had ~$150b allocated for affordable housing. Additionally, polls are showing the republicans taking back both the House and Senate in this years mid-terms elections which may leave Biden desperate for a win. One thing he can achieve on his own administratively without the help of Congress is completing the privatization of the GSEs and monetizing the warrants for $100b+ and using those funds for affordable housing (as envisioned by Calhoun and whoever in the Biden admin supported that vision). Sandra Thompson confirmation hearing on Jan 13 for more insight.
2) Organic recap path: The GSEs are continuing to retain earnings and should have ~$75b in total capital by the end of the year. When the admin amended the last minute changes by Calabria and Mnuchin to the PSPA, they made a decision to continue letting the GSEs retain earnings/rebuild capital. FHFA is currently in the process of lowering Calabria’s capital requirements and expanding the GSE footprints as they reverse Calabria’s business shrinking policies (Thompson is making them even bigger than ever before). FHFA also directed the GSEs to come up with capital restoration plans, “The capital plans will allow the Enterprises to identify the amount of capital they need to raise to close the gap with the ERCF, and to consider the timing of when to raise capital, and what types of capital to raise.” FHFA also just increased the conforming loan limit by ~20% so this should be another great year for the underlying business as the pool of loans they can underwrite expands. Most importantly the Biden admin isn't trying to unwind/replace the GSEs anytime soon as it seems they actually are supporting them more than Calabria ever did.
All of this is going on while the Jr PFD shares are trading at 10% of PAR and the common shares are sub $1. Marvelous opportunity and GLTA this year.
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