IPS' Tea Leaves (conservative predictions) for '22...I take a perhaps more tempered view of the company, but my thoughts on the sector is a 2022 bag of both raging successes and the black eyes (mixed)
The Tier I's and a couple of breakouts (M&A) in the II's and III's will certainly impress, but let's not forget the penny death spiral stocks that have sucked in the retail crowd and somehow enchanted a great many "supposed analysts" for whatever reasons (Aha! RR's Read number 3?)
That said, my 2022 supposed outperforms are TCNNF, VRNOF, and SHWZ.
My 2022 supposed tripping dead list include ITHUF, SNDL, MMNFF, and RWBYF. And, any Canadian company buying rights to things which they cannot market or debt of said struggling OTC companies...dead money funded by more debt and ultimately resulting in nothing but ether as the shares generated are diluting them into the abyss. "Poof!" for the retail investor as they are broken up, sold by receivers, taken under and are ultimately delisted. No happy endings? Don't see it. Sorry TLRY.
As for earnings, I'd be happy for a penny or two in profit from SHWZ in the '21 Q4 period which would result in a prior year of overall profit and three straight quarters of profitability. I can foresee 4 quarters of profitability throughout '22. Although I'd dial back the analysts estimates by a whopping 40% and we could still have expansion better than 20% (as indicated in the investor deck) and debt service at an accelerated rate. That said another 6-8 dispensaries would be manageable vs say 18 (closing in on the big Five-Oh). Will depend on the deals as structured, but if they get to 50 by YE '22, it will very much surprise me. I do see the analysts as way ahead of the earnings and way below on their price targets. There is already a disconnect as to pps and the few profitable companies out there. See tripping dead to thank for that perception.
As for government...count on nothing and enjoy any scraps they give us. I'd prefer to have zero help as a factor for pps and will say this, the current value of this company is $2.24 pps a couple of months ago. The metrics have only improved since. Why? That's the conversion price and lock up price ($2.25) and what the company has consistently values themselves at by their internals as FAIR value in their deals with greater numbers going forward. What do we know? Apparently, not much, trading at a discount, but I think we all suspect the stock is not trading reasonably with the underlying value and may not until we have a greater market option, such as the NASDAQ. I personally hope they stay off the CSE.
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