What finally did it for me was the trend line that I saw forming by connecting the '90, '92 and '95 lows on the NASD. This trendline indicates a low of 1500, quite a bit from here.
Couple this with the fact that the sentiment is still quite bullish, and we are not out of Aug/Sept yet, the scenario of not being able to hold the lows of April have a REAL chance.
I do hope I am wrong, tho, as I do want to get back and have my assets grow, even at a reasonable rate of 10-11%, the long term S&P returns. Just now, I see too much downside.
As we speak, DJIA has peaked to 10300 on the P&F chart. Let's see if it can break 10350, and change the trend.
Ek
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