Replies to post #704795 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[FFFacts]

People can be right on the final outcome but wrong on timing. That opportunity cost and holding cost can negate any award. Don't forget about inflation.

If there is admin action that process can take years. So if you are expecting par overnight based on expected admin action, I don't think that is realistic. Maybe a move to 40-60% on headlines depending on the plan of action.

[JOoa0ky]

Howard Marks said... being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.

Being wrong on time frame so far and off by like 5 years in a world where the courts have misinterpreted the law in favor of the government does not mean that i am wrong now

I expected shareholders to win on apa claims. They lost

I expected obama and then trump to finish admin action
Obama never started
Trump never finished

But for the investment there is no alternative but recap and release and i think 2022 is going to be it

[Stern is Bald]

It means you have been wrong on every step of the way from actions of the administration(s), actions of the courts and timeline events.

Magical thinking clouds good judgement.

[FnF_Newbie]

Amazing to think but warrant expiry is no longer that far away in terms of a political & restructuring calendar. The Biden Administration will likely want to own warrant value prior to re-election. Failing that, there's a chance Trump can get elected again (net positive for FnF shares) and finally the warrants will eventually expire if unexercised (which I imagine would be tough to explain politically, depending on legal outcomes) irrespective of who is in the White House.

Bottom line is I agree -- if only because passage of time puts more pressure on the outcome.

[Freddie bagholder]

Broken Clock is right twice in 24 hours.
You will be right someday once in 12 years and then you can Claim you are a genius.