You may be right that we peak in q1. Thing is 2021 numbers were always gonna show massive inflation over 2020, as 2020 the economy was shut down/not fully open. The question to me is how 2022 looks versus 2021, if we start seeing inflation come down (from where weare right now) like I think in 2022 on it's own, add in the fed doing it's stuff, we also had enormous fiscal stimulus in 2020 that carried in 2021. This will curb inflation I'm pretty confident of it, and I'm pretty confident the fed will do the rest, with all the other factors, what I'm not confident in is if the fed Overshoots and causes a recession in say mid to late 2023- early to mid 2024. If he starts coming out with 50 BPS at one shot the market isn't gonna like that and neither is the economy, if he start raising rates by this spring and go 25 then goes another 25, and than wait a bit and than goes another 25, the economy will respond to this. Simple Answer is powell and company should of tapered sooner, and they have to finsih the taper before they raise rates in my opinion. We should of already been done with the taper and started raising rates in 2022 if not late 2021. And than we could of gone a bit slower having said that as long as he doesn't go super fast this economy can easily handle a couple (2-3) rate hikes next year in my opinion.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
